ArticleBMC research notes2022
Excess all-cause mortality and COVID-19 reported fatality in Iran (April 2013-September 2021): age and sex disaggregated time series analysis.
Article in BMC research notes, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
9 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in low-and lower-middle-income countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis.BMC public health · 2024Pooled it
- Mortality Patterns and Trends in Fars Province, Iran (2015-2024): A Retrospective Analysis of Death Records.Iranian journal of medical sciences · 2026Article
- Assessing COVID-19 Mortality in Serbia's Capital: Model-Based Analysis of Excess Deaths.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2025Article
- All-Cause and Cause-Specific Excess Mortality During the First Two Years of the COVID-19 Pandemic in North-East of Iran: Reiterating the Significance of High-Quality Healthcare Systems.International journal of health policy and management · 2025Article
- Comprehensive assessment of COVID-19 case fatality rate and influential factors in Khuzestan Province, Iran: a two-year study.Journal of health, population, and nutrition · 2024Article
- Non-COVID-19 hospitalization and mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in Iran: a longitudinal assessment of 41 million people in 2019-2022.BMC public health · 2024Article
- COVID-19 vaccines breakthrough infection and adverse reactions in medical students: a nationwide survey in Iran.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
- Gender differences in estimated excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in Thailand.BMC public health · 2023Article
- Global Excess Mortality during COVID-19 Pandemic: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.Vaccines · 2022Review
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectiveThe actual impact of the pandemic on COVID-19 specific mortality is still unclear due to the variability in access to diagnostic tools. This study aimed to estimate the excess all-cause mortality in Iran until September 2021 based on the national death statistics.
resultsThe autoregressive integrated moving average was used to predict seasonal all-cause death in Iran (R-squared = 0.45). We observed a 38.8% (95% confidence interval (CI) 29.7%-40.1%) rise in the all-cause mortality from 22 June 2020 to 21 June 2021. The excess all-cause mortality per 100,000 population were 178.86 (95% CI 137.2-220.5, M:F ratio = 1.3) with 49.1% of these excess deaths due to COVID-19. Comparison of spring 2019 and spring 2021 revealed that the highest percent increase in mortality was among men aged 65-69 years old (77%) and women aged 60-64 years old (86.8%). Moreover, the excess mortality among 31 provinces of Iran ranged from 109.7 (Hormozgan) to 273.2 (East-Azerbaijan) per 100,000 population. In conclusion, there was a significant rise in all-cause mortality during the pandemic. Since COVID-19 fatality explains about half of this rise, the increase in other causes of death and underestimation in reported data should be concerned by further studies.
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