ArticleJournal of the Royal Society, Interface2022
Multi-scale modelling reveals that early super-spreader events are a likely contributor to novel variant predominance.
Article in Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 18 papers.
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Who cites it
18 citing papers in PubMed.
- Transmission of mutated SARS-CoV-2 variants is favored by relatively prolonged infections due to delayed immunity.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2026Article
- Random time-shift approximation enables hierarchical Bayesian inference of mechanistic within-host viral dynamics models on large datasets.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- A consensus mathematical model of vaccine-induced antibody dynamics for multiple vaccine platforms and pathogens.Frontiers in immunology · 2025Article
- Impact of a large-scale event on SARS-CoV-2 cases and hospitalizations in the Netherlands, carnival seasons 2022 and 2023.Public health in practice (Oxford, England) · 2024Article
- Heterogeneous SARS-CoV-2 kinetics due to variable timing and intensity of immune responses.JCI insight · 2024Article
- Lineage frequency time series reveal elevated levels of genetic drift in SARS-CoV-2 transmission in England.PLoS pathogens · 2024Article
- Heterogeneous SARS-CoV-2 kinetics due to variable timing and intensity of immune responses.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2024Article
- Unravelling the effect of New Year's Eve celebrations on SARS-CoV-2 transmission.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- High monoclonal neutralization titers reduced breakthrough HIV-1 viral loads in the Antibody Mediated Prevention trials.Nature communications · 2023Article
- Analysis of the risk and pre-emptive control of viral outbreaks accounting for within-host dynamics: SARS-CoV-2 as a case study.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2023Article
- Modelling the viral dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta and Omicron variants in different cell types.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2023Article
- The Principles of SARS-CoV-2 Intervariant Competition Are Exemplified in the Pre-Omicron Era of the Colombian Epidemic.Microbiology spectrum · 2023Article
- Population genetic models for the spatial spread of adaptive variants: A review in light of SARS-CoV-2 evolution.PLoS genetics · 2022Review
- Nowcasting and forecasting COVID-19 waves: the recursive and stochastic nature of transmission.Royal Society open science · 2022Article
- Different forms of superspreading lead to different outcomes: Heterogeneity in infectiousness and contact behavior relevant for the case of SARS-CoV-2.PLoS computational biology · 2022Article
- Article
- Linked nosocomial COVID-19 outbreak in three facilities for people with intellectual and developmental disabilities due to SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.519 with spike mutation T478K in the Netherlands.BMC infectious diseases · 2022Article
- Controlling long-term SARS-CoV-2 infections can slow viral evolution and reduce the risk of treatment failure.Scientific reports · 2021Article
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3 authors.
Funding
Abstract
The emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOC) has hampered international efforts to contain the COVID-19 pandemic. VOCs have been characterized to varying degrees by higher transmissibility, worse infection outcomes and evasion of vaccine and infection-induced immunologic memory. VOCs are hypothesized to have originated from animal reservoirs, communities in regions with low surveillance and/or single individuals with poor immunologic control of the virus. Yet, the factors dictating which variants ultimately predominate remain incompletely characterized. Here we present a multi-scale model of SARS-CoV-2 dynamics that describes population spread through individuals whose viral loads and numbers of contacts (drawn from an over-dispersed distribution) are both time-varying. This framework allows us to explore how super-spreader events (SSE) (defined as greater than five secondary infections per day) contribute to variant emergence. We find stochasticity remains a powerful determinant of predominance. Variants that predominate are more likely to be associated with higher infectiousness, an SSE early after variant emergence and ongoing decline of the current dominant variant. Additionally, our simulations reveal that most new highly infectious variants that infect one or a few individuals do not achieve permanence in the population. Consequently, interventions that reduce super-spreading may delay or mitigate emergence of VOCs.
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