ArticlePLoS computational biology2022
Meteorological factors and non-pharmaceutical interventions explain local differences in the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Austria.
Article in PLoS computational biology, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed.
- Epidemic modelling suggests that in specific circumstances masks may become more effective when fewer contacts wear them.Communications medicine · 2024Article
- Using a Bayesian hierarchical approach to study the association between non-pharmaceutical interventions and the spread of Covid-19 in Germany.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Assessing the importance of demographic risk factors across two waves of SARS-CoV-2 using fine-scale case data.PLoS computational biology · 2023Article
- Article
- Supporting COVID-19 policy-making with a predictive epidemiological multi-model warning system.Communications medicine · 2022Article
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Authors and funding
15 authors.
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Abstract
The drivers behind regional differences of SARS-CoV-2 spread on finer spatio-temporal scales are yet to be fully understood. Here we develop a data-driven modelling approach based on an age-structured compartmental model that compares 116 Austrian regions to a suitably chosen control set of regions to explain variations in local transmission rates through a combination of meteorological factors, non-pharmaceutical interventions and mobility. We find that more than 60% of the observed regional variations can be explained by these factors. Decreasing temperature and humidity, increasing cloudiness, precipitation and the absence of mitigation measures for public events are the strongest drivers for increased virus transmission, leading in combination to a doubling of the transmission rates compared to regions with more favourable weather. We conjecture that regions with little mitigation measures for large events that experience shifts toward unfavourable weather conditions are particularly predisposed as nucleation points for the next seasonal SARS-CoV-2 waves.
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Registered trials
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