ArticleGlobal health action2021
Mortality transition over a quarter century in rural South Africa: findings from population surveillance in Agincourt 1993-2018.
Article in Global health action, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers.
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Who cites it
13 citing papers in PubMed, 14 citations in OpenAlex.
- Cause-specific mortality transition among women of reproductive age with special reference to maternal mortality: the Magu health and demographic surveillance system, Tanzania, 1995-2022.Global health action · 2026Article
- The role of household composition in social isolation and anxiety: evidence from adults in South Africa during the COVID-19 pandemic.The journals of gerontology. Series B, Psychological sciences and social sciences · 2026Article
- Article
- Changes in the provision and utilisation of health care services for chronic health conditions during the COVID-19 pandemic in rural northeast South Africa: an interrupted time series analysis.Journal of global health · 2025Article
- The rationale for Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) in urban populations in Ethiopia.Ethiopian journal of health sciences · 2024Article
- Temporal changes in cause of death among adolescents and adults in six countries in eastern and southern Africa in 1995-2019: a multi-country surveillance study of verbal autopsy data.The Lancet. Global health · 2024Article
- Mortality variability and differentials by age and causes of death in rural South Africa, 1994-2018.BMJ global health · 2024Article
- Understanding Household Dynamics From the Ground Up: A Longitudinal Study From a Rural South African Setting.Demography · 2024Article
- The effects of HIV and systolic blood pressure on mortality risk in rural South Africa, 2010-2019: a data note.BMC research notes · 2023Article
- Realising radical potential: building community power in primary health care through Participatory Action Research.International journal for equity in health · 2023Article
- Article
- Individual and area-level socioeconomic correlates of hypertension prevalence, awareness, treatment, and control in uMgungundlovu, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.BMC public health · 2023Article
- A life in death: reflections of Peter.Global health action · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
9 authors at 4 institutions in 5 countries.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundMortality burden in South Africa since the mid-1990s has been characterized by a quadruple disease burden: HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis (TB); other communicable diseases (excluding HIV/AIDS and TB), maternal causes, perinatal conditions and nutritional deficiencies; non-communicable diseases (NCDs); and injuries. Causes from these broad groupings have persistently constituted the top 10 causes of death. However, proportions and rankings have varied over time, alongside overall mortality levels.
objectiveTo provide evidence on the contributions of age and cause-of-death to changes in mortality levels in a rural South African population over a quarter century (1993-2018).
methodsUsing mortality and cause-of-death data from the Agincourt Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS), we derive estimates of the distribution of deaths by cause, and hazards of death by age, sex, and time period, 1993-2018. We derive estimates of life expectancies at birth and years of life expectancy gained at age 15 if most common causes of death were deleted. We compare mortality indicators and cause-of-death trends from the Agincourt HDSS with South African national indicators generated from publicly available datasets.
resultsMortality and cause-of-death transition reveals that overall mortality levels have returned to pre-HIV epidemic levels. In recent years, the concentration of mortality has shifted towards older ages, and the mortality burden from cardiovascular diseases and other chronic NCDs are more prominent as people living with HIV/AIDS access ART and live longer. Changes in life expectancy at birth, distribution of deaths by age, and major cause-of-death categories in the Agincourt population follow a similar pattern to the South African population.
conclusionThe Agincourt HDSS provides critical information about general mortality, cause-of-death, and age patterns in rural South Africa. Realigning and strengthening the South African public health and healthcare systems is needed to concurrently cater for the prevention, control, and treatment of multiple disease conditions.
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