Evidence map›Paper›PMID 35373711›Full record

ArticleRenal failure2022

Development and internal validation of machine learning algorithms for end-stage renal disease risk prediction model of people with type 2 diabetes mellitus and diabetic kidney disease.

Yutong Zou, Lijun Zhao, Junlin Zhang, Yiting Wang, Yucheng Wu, Honghong Ren, Tingli Wang, Rui Zhang, Jiali Wang, Yuancheng Zhao and 7 more

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Renal failure, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 72 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
72citing papers in PubMed, 4 pooled it
13.4field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

72 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 101 citations in OpenAlex.

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12 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

17 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.

Yutong ZouDivision of Nephrology, West China Hospital of Sichuan University, Chengdu, China.
Lijun ZhaoDivision of Nephrology, West China Hospital of Sichuan University, Chengdu, China.ORCID 0000-0001-7750-1864
Junlin ZhangDivision of Nephrology, West China Hospital of Sichuan University, Chengdu, China.
Yiting WangDivision of Nephrology, West China Hospital of Sichuan University, Chengdu, China.
Yucheng WuDivision of Nephrology, West China Hospital of Sichuan University, Chengdu, China.
Honghong RenDivision of Nephrology, West China Hospital of Sichuan University, Chengdu, China.
Tingli WangDivision of Nephrology, West China Hospital of Sichuan University, Chengdu, China.
Rui ZhangDivision of Nephrology, West China Hospital of Sichuan University, Chengdu, China.
Jiali WangDivision of Nephrology, West China Hospital of Sichuan University, Chengdu, China.
Yuancheng ZhaoDivision of Nephrology, West China Hospital of Sichuan University, Chengdu, China.
Chunmei QinDivision of Nephrology, West China Hospital of Sichuan University, Chengdu, China.
Huan XuDivision of Pathology, West China Hospital of Sichuan University, Chengdu, China.
Lin LiDivision of Pathology, West China Hospital of Sichuan University, Chengdu, China.
Zhonglin ChaiDepartment of Diabetes, Central Clinical School, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia.
Mark E CooperDepartment of Diabetes, Central Clinical School, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia.
Nanwei TongDivision of Endocrinology, West China Hospital of Sichuan University, Chengdu, China.
Fang LiuDivision of Nephrology, West China Hospital of Sichuan University, Chengdu, China.ORCID 0000-0003-1121-3004
Sichuan University · CNMonash University · AU

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

aimsDiabetic kidney disease (DKD) is the most common cause of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and is associated with increased morbidity and mortality in patients with diabetes. Identification of risk factors involved in the progression of DKD to ESRD is expected to result in early detection and appropriate intervention and improve prognosis. Therefore, this study aimed to establish a risk prediction model for ESRD resulting from DKD in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM).

methodsBetween January 2008 and July 2019, a total of 390 Chinese patients with T2DM and DKD confirmed by percutaneous renal biopsy were enrolled and followed up for at least 1 year. Four machine learning algorithms (gradient boosting machine, support vector machine, logistic regression, and random forest (RF)) were used to identify the critical clinical and pathological features and to build a risk prediction model for ESRD.

resultsThere were 158 renal outcome events (ESRD) (40.51%) during the 3-year median follow up. The RF algorithm showed the best performance at predicting progression to ESRD, showing the highest AUC (0.90) and ACC (82.65%). The RF algorithm identified five major factors: Cystatin-C, serum albumin (sAlb), hemoglobin (Hb), 24-hour urine urinary total protein, and estimated glomerular filtration rate. A nomogram according to the aforementioned five predictive factors was constructed to predict the incidence of ESRD.

conclusionMachine learning algorithms can efficiently predict the incident ESRD in DKD participants. Compared with the previous models, the importance of sAlb and Hb were highlighted in the current model.Highlights

Indexed as

Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2Diabetic NephropathiesKidney Failure, ChronicAlgorithmsHumansMachine Learningdiabetic kidney diseaseend-stage renal diseasemachine learningrisk prediction modelType 2 diabetes mellitus

Identifiers

PMID35373711
PMCPMC8986220
OpenAlexW4225658861

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.