ArticleInfectious Disease Modelling2022
Projections of the transmission of the Omicron variant for Toronto, Ontario, and Canada using surveillance data following recent changes in testing policies.
Article in Infectious Disease Modelling, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
12 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 23 citations in OpenAlex.
- Predictive models for health outcomes due to SARS-CoV-2, including the effect of vaccination: a systematic review.Systematic reviews · 2024Pooled it
- Quantifying SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant spread and the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions in Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection before and after the Omicron wave in a cohort of healthcare workers in Ontario, Canada.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Article
- Trends in Testing for SARS-CoV-2 Among Healthcare Workers in a Canadian Cohort Study During the COVID-19 Pandemic, June 2020 to November 2023.The Canadian journal of infectious diseases & medical microbiology = Journal canadien des maladies infectieuses et de la microbiologie medicale · 2025Article
- Wastewater Surveillance to Confirm Differences in Influenza A Infection between Michigan, USA, and Ontario, Canada, September 2022-March 2023.Emerging infectious diseases · 2024Article
- Canadian COVID-19 Outbreak Surveillance System: implementation of national surveillance during a global pandemic.Canadian journal of public health = Revue canadienne de sante publique · 2023Article
- Extensive SARS-CoV-2 testing reveals BA.1/BA.2 asymptomatic rates and underreporting in school children.Canada communicable disease report = Releve des maladies transmissibles au Canada · 2023Article
- Exploring a COVID-19 Endemic Scenario: High-Resolution Agent-Based Modeling of Multiple Variants.Advanced theory and simulations · 2023Article
- Evaluations of COVID-19 epidemic models with multiple susceptible compartments using exponential and non-exponential distribution for disease stages.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2022Article
- Assessing the mechanism of citywide test-trace-isolate Zero-COVID policy and exit strategy of COVID-19 pandemic.Infectious diseases of poverty · 2022Article
- Modeling vaccination and control strategies for outbreaks of monkeypox at gatherings.Frontiers in public health · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
7 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
At the end of 2021, with the rapid escalation of COVID19 cases due to the Omicron variant, testing centers in Canada were overwhelmed. To alleviate the pressure on the PCR testing capacity, many provinces implemented new strategies that promote self testing and adjust the eligibility for PCR tests, making the count of new cases underreported. We designed a novel compartmental model which captures the new testing guidelines, social behaviours, booster vaccines campaign and features of the newest variant Omicron. To better describe the testing eligibility, we considered the population divided into high risk and non-high-risk settings. The model is calibrated using data from January 1 to February 9, 2022, on cases and severe outcomes in Canada, the province of Ontario and City of Toronto. We conduct analyses on the impact of PCR testing capacity, self testing, different levels of reopening and vaccination coverage on cases and severe outcomes. Our results show that the total number of cases in Canada, Ontario and Toronto are 2.34 (95%CI: 1.22-3.38), 2.20 (95%CI: 1.15-3.72), and 1.97(95%CI: 1.13-3.41), times larger than reported cases, respectively. The current testing strategy is efficient if partial restrictions, such as limited capacity in public spaces, are implemented. Allowing more people to have access to PCR reduces the daily cases and severe outcomes; however, if PCR test capacity is insufficient, then it is important to promote self testing. Also, we found that reopening to a pre-pandemic level will lead to a resurgence of the infections, peaking in late March or April 2022. Vaccination and adherence to isolation protocols are important supports to the testing policies to mitigate any possible spread of the virus.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.