Comparing future climatic suitability to shoreline loss for recreational beach use: a case study of five Japanese beaches.

Andrew Zajch, Micah J Hewer, William A Gough, Keiko Udo

Abstract read

In one paragraph

Article in Regional environmental change, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

0numbers the graph read from it

0cells of the map it votes in

0citing papers in PubMed

–field-weighted citation impact

1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Andrew ZajchDepartment of Physical and Environmental Sciences, University of Toronto at Scarborough, Toronto, Canada.ORCID 0000-0002-4707-6542

Micah J HewerDepartment of Physical and Environmental Sciences, University of Toronto at Scarborough, Toronto, Canada.

William A GoughDepartment of Physical and Environmental Sciences, University of Toronto at Scarborough, Toronto, Canada.

Keiko UdoInternational Research Institute of Disaster Science, Tohoku University, Sendai, Japan.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Coastal tourism is impacted by regional environmental change, including sea-level rise and climatic change. A case study at five Japanese beaches was conducted to determine the relative difference in coastal and climatic changes that are important for recreational beach tourism. Future climate conditions and projections of shoreline changes due to sea-level rise were estimated using ensembles of 14 and 21 Global Circulation Models (GCMs), respectively. The Holiday Climate Index (HCI:Beach) specific to recreational beach use was used to assess historical and future climatic suitability while beach loss area was used to quantify physical changes to beach conditions. Diminished beaches with improved climate conditions were observed at all sites except Yonehara, which had both diminished beach and climate conditions. Comparing HCI:Beach scores relative to historical conditions revealed a change of -2.4 to +10%, while beach losses were typically >60%. These results highlight that beach tourism suitability at the study sites will likely exhibit greater changes due to sea-level rise, compared to those driven by changing atmospheric conditions. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10113-022-01906-2.

Indexed as

Beach tourismClimate changeHoliday Climate IndexImpacts and adaptationRegional warmingSea-level rise

Identifiers

PMID35370455

DOI10.1007/s10113-022-01906-2

PMCPMC8958812

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.