Evidence map›Paper›PMID 35366384›Full record

ArticleTransboundary and emerging diseases2022

Ecology of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus, 2012-2020: A machine learning modelling analysis.

An-Ran Zhang, Xin-Lou Li, Tao Wang, Kun Liu, Ming-Jin Liu, Wen-Hui Zhang, Guo-Ping Zhao, Jin-Jin Chen, Xiao-Ai Zhang, Dong Miao and 4 more

Open access · hybridAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Transboundary and emerging diseases, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
4citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
1.2field-weighted citation impact, top 25% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

4 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 9 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Review
  3. Article
  4. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

14 authors at 6 institutions in 3 countries.

An-Ran ZhangDepartment of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China.
Xin-Lou LiDepartment of Medical Research, Key Laboratory of Environmental Sense Organ Stress and Health of the Ministry of Environmental Protection, PLA Strategic Support Force Medical Center, Beijing, China.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7743-0856
Tao WangState Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, China.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4906-9677
Kun LiuDepartment of Epidemiology, Ministry of Education Key Lab of Hazard Assessment and Control in Special Operational Environment, School of Public Health, Air Force Medical University, Xi'an, China.
Ming-Jin LiuDepartment of Biostatistics, College of Public Health and Health Professions, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USA.
Wen-Hui ZhangState Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, China.
Guo-Ping ZhaoDepartment of Epidemiology, Logistics College of Chinese People's Armed Police Forces, Tianjin, China.
Jin-Jin ChenState Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, China.
Xiao-Ai ZhangState Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, China.
Dong MiaoState Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, China.
Wei MaDepartment of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China.
Li-Qun FangState Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, China.
Yang YangDepartment of Biostatistics, College of Public Health and Health Professions, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USA.
Wei LiuState Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, China.
Institute of Microbiology · CNShandong University · CNUniversity of Florida Health · USLogistics University of People's Armed Police Force · CNMinistry of Ecology and Environment · CNMinistry of Education · KR

Funding

Design and Analysis of Vaccine Trials for Emerging Infectious Disease ThreatsR01AI139761 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA · PI DEAN, NATALIE EXNER · 2018 to 2022
$3.6M
Mathematical and Statistical Methods for the Control of Global Infectious Disease ThreatsR56AI148284 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA · PI HALLORAN, M ELIZABETH, LONGINI, IRA M · 2020 to 2020
$802k
National Key Research and Development Program of China 2019YFC1200604National Key Research and Development Program of China 2021YFC2302004National Natural Science Foundation of China 81825019NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI139761NIAID NIH HHS R56 AI148284Open Funding of Key Laboratory of Environmental Sense Organ Stress and Health of the Ministry of Environmental Protection 19ZX83
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The ongoing enzootic circulation of the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in the Middle East and North Africa is increasingly raising the concern about the possibility of its recombination with other human-adapted coronaviruses, particularly the pandemic SARS-CoV-2. We aim to provide an updated picture about ecological niches of MERS-CoV and associated socio-environmental drivers. Based on 356 confirmed MERS cases with animal contact reported to the WHO and 63 records of animal infections collected from the literature as of 30 May 2020, we assessed ecological niches of MERS-CoV using an ensemble model integrating three machine learning algorithms. With a high predictive accuracy (area under receiver operating characteristic curve = 91.66% in test data), the ensemble model estimated that ecologically suitable areas span over the Middle East, South Asia and the whole North Africa, much wider than the range of reported locally infected MERS cases and test-positive animal samples. Ecological suitability for MERS-CoV was significantly associated with high levels of bareland coverage (relative contribution = 30.06%), population density (7.28%), average temperature (6.48%) and camel density (6.20%). Future surveillance and intervention programs should target the high-risk populations and regions informed by updated quantitative analyses.

Indexed as

COVID-19Middle East Respiratory Syndrome CoronavirusAnimalsCamelusHumansMachine LearningSARS-CoV-2machine learningMERS-CoVMiddle East respiratory syndromepredicted maprisk factors

Identifiers

PMID35366384
PMCPMC9526759
OpenAlexW4223507687

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.