Evidence map›Paper›PMID 35361776›Full record

ArticleNPJ microgravity2022

Estimating medical risk in human spaceflight.

Erik L Antonsen, Jerry G Myers, Lynn Boley, John Arellano, Eric Kerstman, Binaifer Kadwa, Daniel M Buckland, Mary Van Baalen

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in NPJ microgravity, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 23 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
23citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

23 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Review
  2. Article
  3. Biomedicine and Biotechnology in Space: An Introduction.Methods in molecular biology (Clifton, N.J.) · 2026
    Article
  4. Article
  5. Review
  6. Review
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Review
  10. Article
  11. Review
  12. The human biology of spaceflight.American journal of human biology : the official journal of the Human Biology Council · 2024
    Article
  13. Review
  14. Review
  15. Review
  16. Article
  17. Article
  18. Review
  19. Article
  20. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

Erik L AntonsenCenter for Space Medicine, Department of Emergency Medicine, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, 77007, USA. eantonse@gmail.com.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1042-7011
Jerry G MyersNASA Glenn Research Center, Cleveland, OH, 44135, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9775-4850
Lynn BoleyKBR, Houston, TX, 77058, USA.
John ArellanoAegis Aerospace Inc., Houston, TX, 77058, USA.
Eric KerstmanDepartment of Preventive Medicine and Population Health, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, TX, 77555, USA.
Binaifer KadwaNASA Johnson Space Center, Houston, TX, 77058, USA.
Daniel M BucklandNASA Johnson Space Center, Houston, TX, 77058, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5274-3840
Mary Van BaalenNASA Johnson Space Center, Houston, TX, 77058, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0915-9726

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

NASA and commercial spaceflight companies will soon be retuning humans to the Moon and then eventually sending them on to Mars. These distant planetary destinations will pose new risks-in particular for the health of the astronaut crews. The bulk of the evidence characterizing human health and performance in spaceflight has come from missions in Low Earth Orbit. As missions last longer and travel farther from Earth, medical risk is expected to contribute an increasing proportion of total mission risk. To date, there have been no reliable estimates of how much. The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) Monte-Carlo simulation tool developed by NASA for medical risk assessment. This paper uses the IMM to provide an evidence-based, quantified medical risk estimate comparison across different spaceflight mission durations. We discuss model limitations and unimplemented capabilities providing insight into the complexity of medical risk estimation for human spaceflight. The results enable prioritization of medical needs in the context of other mission risks. These findings provide a reasonable bounding estimate for medical risk in missions to the Moon and Mars and hold value for risk managers and mission planners in performing cost-benefit trades for mission capability and research investments.

Identifiers

PMID35361776
PMCPMC8971481

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.