ArticleBMC infectious diseases2022
Age-specific rate of severe and critical SARS-CoV-2 infections estimated with multi-country seroprevalence studies.
Article in BMC infectious diseases, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 50 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
50 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Performance of artificial intelligence in predicting the prognossis of severe COVID-19: a systematic review and meta-analysis.Frontiers in public health · 2024Pooled it
- Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 seroassay sensitivity: a systematic review and modelling study.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2023Pooled it
- Age-stratified infection fatality rate of COVID-19 in the non-elderly population.Environmental research · 2023Pooled it
- Assessing the burden of COVID-19 in developing countries: systematic review, meta-analysis and public policy implications.BMJ global health · 2022Pooled it
- An effective COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy intervention focused on the relative risks of vaccination and infection.Scientific reports · 2024Trial
- Agreement between seroprevalence- and model-based estimates of COVID-19 burden.Global health action · 2026Article
- Using forensic autopsy data to estimate the age-specific infection fatality risk of COVID-19.Epidemiology and infection · 2026Article
- Characteristics of COVID-19 cases and factors associated with disease severity in Lao People's Democratic Republic: a nationwide study.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Observational
- Genetic, Sociodemographic and Clinical Determinants of COVID-19 Severity in the Republic of Srpska: Exploring Potential Links with Neanderthal-Derived Variants.Biomedicines · 2026Article
- Article
- Interpreting epidemiological surveillance data: a modelling study based on Pune city.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Physical activity during COVID-19 pandemic: A 5-year retrospect.Sports medicine and health science · 2025Review
- Predicting antibody kinetics and duration of protection against SARS-CoV-2 following vaccination from sparse serological data.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Robust COVID-19 Vaccine Responses Despite Filarial Co-Infection: Insights from a Lymphatic Filariasis Cohort in Ghana.Vaccines · 2025Article
- Age-associated differences in mucosal and systemic host responses to SARS-CoV-2 infection.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Planning and adjusting the COVID-19 booster vaccination campaign to reduce disease burden.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2025Article
- Predictive Factors for COVID-19 Severity in Patients with Axial Spondyloarthritis: Real-World Data from the Romanian Registry of Rheumatic Diseases.Medicina (Kaunas, Lithuania) · 2025Observational
- COVID-19 vaccinations among German university students: The role of fear of COVID-19 and risk assessment.PloS one · 2025Article
- Impact of SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic on Emergency Hospitalizations for Acute Respiratory Infections: The Experience of a Paediatric Tertiary Care Hospital in Italy.Influenza and other respiratory viruses · 2024Article
- The Interleukin-6 gene variants may protect against SARS-CoV-2 infection and the severity of COVID-19: a case-control study in a Moroccan population.BMC medical genomics · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundKnowing the age-specific rates at which individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 develop severe and critical disease is essential for designing public policy, for infectious disease modeling, and for individual risk evaluation.
methodsIn this study, we present the first estimates of these rates using multi-country serology studies, and public data on hospital admissions and mortality from early to mid-2020. We combine these under a Bayesian framework that accounts for the high heterogeneity between data sources and their respective uncertainties. We also validate our results using an indirect method based on infection fatality rates and hospital mortality data.
resultsOur results show that the risk of severe and critical disease increases exponentially with age, but much less steeply than the risk of fatal illness. We also show that our results are consistent across several robustness checks.
conclusionA complete evaluation of the risks of SARS-CoV-2 for health must take non-fatal disease outcomes into account, particularly in young populations where they can be 2 orders of magnitude more frequent than deaths.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.