Evidence map›Paper›PMID 35350880›Full record

ArticleJournal of the Royal Society, Interface2022

Misinformation can prevent the suppression of epidemics.

Andrei Sontag, Tim Rogers, Christian A Yates

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
6citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

6 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors.

Andrei SontagDepartment of Mathematical Sciences, University of Bath, Bath BA2 7AY, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-7088-0491
Tim RogersDepartment of Mathematical Sciences, University of Bath, Bath BA2 7AY, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-5733-1658
Christian A YatesDepartment of Mathematical Sciences, University of Bath, Bath BA2 7AY, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-0461-7297

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as mask-wearing and social distancing, as control measures for pandemic disease relies upon a conscientious and well-informed public who are aware of and prepared to follow advice. Unfortunately, public health messages can be undermined by competing misinformation and conspiracy theories, spread virally through communities that are already distrustful of expert opinion. In this article, we propose and analyse a simple model of the interaction between disease spread and awareness dynamics in a heterogeneous population composed of both trusting individuals who seek better quality information and will take precautionary measures, and distrusting individuals who reject better quality information and have overall riskier behaviour. We show that, as the density of the distrusting population increases, the model passes through a phase transition to a state in which major outbreaks cannot be suppressed. Our work highlights the urgent need for effective interventions to increase trust and inform the public.

Indexed as

Influenza, HumanCommunicationDisease OutbreaksHumansPandemicsPublic Healthawareness spreadepidemic modellingheterogeneous population

Identifiers

PMID35350880
PMCPMC8965399

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.