Evidence map›Paper›PMID 35348909›Full record

ArticleJournal of medical systems2022

Domain Shifts in Machine Learning Based Covid-19 Diagnosis From Blood Tests.

Theresa Roland, Carl Böck, Thomas Tschoellitsch, Alexander Maletzky, Sepp Hochreiter, Jens Meier, Günter Klambauer

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of medical systems, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 19 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
19citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

19 citing papers in PubMed.

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  18. Review
  19. Analyzing Patient Trajectories With Artificial Intelligence.Journal of medical Internet research · 2021
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Theresa RolandELLIS Unit Linz, LIT AI Lab, Institute for Machine Learning, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Linz, Austria. theresa.roland@jku.at.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7893-6146
Carl BöckDepartment of Anesthesiology and Critical Care Medicine, Kepler University Hospital GmbH, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Linz, Austria.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2207-2411
Thomas TschoellitschDepartment of Anesthesiology and Critical Care Medicine, Kepler University Hospital GmbH, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Linz, Austria.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3350-7532
Alexander MaletzkyRISC Software GmbH, Hagenberg i.M., Austria.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4378-7854
Sepp HochreiterELLIS Unit Linz, LIT AI Lab, Institute for Machine Learning, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Linz, Austria.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-7449-2528
Jens MeierDepartment of Anesthesiology and Critical Care Medicine, Kepler University Hospital GmbH, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Linz, Austria.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8727-2257
Günter KlambauerELLIS Unit Linz, LIT AI Lab, Institute for Machine Learning, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Linz, Austria.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2861-5552

Funding

Linz Institute of Technology LIT-2018-6-YOU-212State of Upper Austria Wi-2018-439843
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Many previous studies claim to have developed machine learning models that diagnose COVID-19 from blood tests. However, we hypothesize that changes in the underlying distribution of the data, so called domain shifts, affect the predictive performance and reliability and are a reason for the failure of such machine learning models in clinical application. Domain shifts can be caused, e.g., by changes in the disease prevalence (spreading or tested population), by refined RT-PCR testing procedures (way of taking samples, laboratory procedures), or by virus mutations. Therefore, machine learning models for diagnosing COVID-19 or other diseases may not be reliable and degrade in performance over time. We investigate whether domain shifts are present in COVID-19 datasets and how they affect machine learning methods. We further set out to estimate the mortality risk based on routinely acquired blood tests in a hospital setting throughout pandemics and under domain shifts. We reveal domain shifts by evaluating the models on a large-scale dataset with different assessment strategies, such as temporal validation. We present the novel finding that domain shifts strongly affect machine learning models for COVID-19 diagnosis and deteriorate their predictive performance and credibility. Therefore, frequent re-training and re-assessment are indispensable for robust models enabling clinical utility.

Indexed as

COVID-19COVID-19 TestingHematologic TestsHumansMachine LearningReproducibility of ResultsBlood testCOVID-19Domain shiftMachine learning

Identifiers

PMID35348909
PMCPMC8960704

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.