A model to predict a risk of allergic rhinitis based on mitochondrial DNA copy number.

purposeTo determine whether mitochondrial DNA copy number (mtDNA-CN) is associated with allergic rhinitis (AR), and further establish a nomogram model for the early diagnosis of AR.

methodsWe carried out a case-control study involving a total of 134 subjects, including 66 healthy controls and 68 AR patients. The mtDNA-CN in peripheral blood of all subjects was detected by real-time fluorescence quantitative polymerase chain reaction, and general information of patients was recorded. And, least absolute shrinkage selection operator (LASSO) regression was used to screen clinically significant variables, which were substituted into a logistic regression analysis to determine independent risk factors. Next, a nomogram model was developed for the risk prediction of AR. Then, internal validation was performed with the bootstrap resampling. Ultimately, the clinical benefit and validity of the nomogram were assessed by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, bias-corrected curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

resultsMtDNA-CN and total IgE were determined as independent risk factors of AR. The final model achieved an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.869, and the DCA curve demonstrated that the nomogram was clinically beneficial for practical application.

conclusionAn increase of the mtDNA-CN was linked to the occurrence risk of AR. The nomogram prediction model based on mtDNA-CN showed the potential clinical utility in improving risk prediction and providing new insights for exploring the pathogenesis of AR.