ArticleInfectious diseases of poverty2022
Vaccination as an alternative to non-drug interventions to prevent local resurgence of COVID-19.
Article in Infectious diseases of poverty, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Predictive models for health outcomes due to SARS-CoV-2, including the effect of vaccination: a systematic review.Systematic reviews · 2024Pooled it
- Impacts of social distancing policy and vaccination during the COVID-19 pandemic in the Republic of Korea.Journal of economic dynamics & control · 2023Article
- Effects of contact tracing and nucleic acid testing on the COVID-19 outbreak in Zunyi, China: data-driven study using a branching process model.BMC infectious diseases · 2023Article
- Impact of vaccination and non-pharmacological interventions on COVID-19: a review of simulation modeling studies in Asia.Frontiers in public health · 2023Review
- The rapid and efficient strategy for SARS-CoV-2 Omicron transmission control: analysis of outbreaks at the city level.Infectious diseases of poverty · 2022Article
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Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundWhile a COVID-19 vaccine protects people from serious illness and death, it remains a concern when and how to lift the high-cost and strict non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). This study examined the joint effect of vaccine coverage and NPIs on the control of local and sporadic resurgence of COVID-19 cases.
methodsBetween July 2021 and January 2022, we collected the large-scale testing information and case number of imported COVID-19 patients from the website of the National Health Commission of China. A compartment model was developed to identify the level of vaccine coverage that would allow safe relaxation of NPIs, and vaccination strategies that can best achieve this level of coverage. We applied Monte Carlo simulation 50 000 times to remove random fluctuation effects and obtain fitted/predicted epidemic curve based on various parameters with 95% confidence interval at each time point.
resultsWe found that a vaccination coverage of 50.4% was needed for the safe relaxation of NPIs, if the vaccine effectiveness was 79.3%. The total number of incidence cases under the key groups firstly strategy was 10
conclusionsAs vaccine coverage improves, the NPIs can be gradually relaxed. Until that threshold is reached, however, strict NPIs are still needed to control the epidemic. The more transmissible SARS-CoV-2 variant led to higher resurgence probability, which indicates the importance of accelerated vaccination and achieving the vaccine coverage earlier.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.