Evidence map›Paper›PMID 35337049›Full record

Observational studyViruses2022

Risk of Seven-Day Worsening and Death: A New Clinically Derived COVID-19 Score.

Alessia Cruciata, Lorenzo Volpicelli, Silvia Di Bari, Giancarlo Iaiani, Bruno Cirillo, Francesco Pugliese, Daniela Pellegrino, Gioacchino Galardo, Gloria Taliani

Open access · goldAbstract readObservational Study
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Observational study in Viruses, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
0.1field-weighted citation impact, top 60% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 1 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.

Alessia CruciataInfectious and Tropical Medicine Unit, Department of Public Health and Infectious Diseases, "Policlinico Umberto I" Hospital, Sapienza University of Rome, Viale del Policlinico 155, 00161 Rome, Italy.
Lorenzo VolpicelliInfectious and Tropical Medicine Unit, Department of Public Health and Infectious Diseases, "Policlinico Umberto I" Hospital, Sapienza University of Rome, Viale del Policlinico 155, 00161 Rome, Italy.ORCID 0000-0003-2610-8768
Silvia Di BariInfectious and Tropical Medicine Unit, Department of Public Health and Infectious Diseases, "Policlinico Umberto I" Hospital, Sapienza University of Rome, Viale del Policlinico 155, 00161 Rome, Italy.
Giancarlo IaianiInfectious and Tropical Medicine Unit, Department of Public Health and Infectious Diseases, "Policlinico Umberto I" Hospital, Sapienza University of Rome, Viale del Policlinico 155, 00161 Rome, Italy.
Bruno CirilloDepartment of Surgery "Pietro Valdoni", "Policlinico Umberto I" Hospital, Sapienza University of Rome, Viale del Policlinico 155, 00161 Rome, Italy.
Francesco PuglieseDepartment of General Surgery and Surgical Specialities "Paride Stefanini", "Policlinico Umberto I" Hospital, Sapienza University of Rome, Viale del Policlinico 155, 00161 Rome, Italy.
Daniela PellegrinoPulmonology, Respiratory and Critical Care Unit, Department of Public Health and Infectious Diseases, "Policlinico Umberto I" Hospital, Sapienza University of Rome, Viale del Policlinico 155, 00161 Rome, Italy.
Gioacchino GalardoMedical Emergency Unit, Department of Emergency, "Policlinico Umberto I" Hospital, Sapienza University of Rome, Viale del Policlinico 155, 00161 Rome, Italy.ORCID 0000-0001-5941-9947
Gloria TalianiInfectious and Tropical Medicine Unit, Department of Public Health and Infectious Diseases, "Policlinico Umberto I" Hospital, Sapienza University of Rome, Viale del Policlinico 155, 00161 Rome, Italy.
Policlinico Umberto I · IT

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

This monocentric, retrospective, two-stage observational study aimed to recognize the risk factors for a poor outcome in patients hospitalized with SARS-CoV-2 infection, and to develop and validate a risk score that identifies subjects at risk of worsening, death, or both. The data of patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection during the first wave of the pandemic were collected and analyzed as a derivation cohort. Variables with predictive properties were used to construct a prognostic score, which was tried out on a validation cohort enrolled during the second wave. The derivation cohort included 494 patients; the median age was 62 and the overall fatality rate was 22.3%. In a multivariable analysis, age, oxygen saturation, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, C-reactive protein and lactate dehydrogenase were independent predictors of death and composed the score. A cutoff value of 3 demonstrated a sensitivity (Se), specificity (Sp), positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) of 93.5%, 68.5%, 47.4% and 97.2% for death, and 84.9%, 84.5%, 79.6% and 87.9% for worsening, respectively. The validation cohort included 415 subjects. The score application showed a Se, Sp, PPV and NPV of 93.4%, 61.6%, 29.5% and 98.1% for death, and 81%, 76.3%, 72.1% and 84.1% for worsening, respectively. We propose a new clinical, easy and reliable score to predict the outcome in hospitalized SARS-CoV-2 patients.

Indexed as

COVID-19HumansMiddle AgedPredictive Value of TestsRetrospective StudiesRisk FactorsSARS-CoV-2clinical scoreCOVID-19prognostic scorerisk of deathrisk of worseningSARS-CoV-2

Identifiers

PMID35337049
PMCPMC8951891
OpenAlexW4220961793

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.