Evidence map›Paper›PMID 35336218›Full record

ArticleMicroorganisms2022

Geo-Spatial Characteristics of 567 Places of Tick-Borne Encephalitis Infection in Southern Germany, 2018-2020.

Amelie M Friedsam, Oliver J Brady, Antonia Pilic, Gerhard Dobler, Wiebke Hellenbrand, Teresa M Nygren

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Microorganisms, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
11citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

11 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
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  9. Spatiotemporal spread of tick-borne encephalitis in the EU/EEA, 2012 to 2020.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2023
    Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Amelie M FriedsamImmunization Unit (FG33), Robert Koch Institute, Seestraße 10, 13353 Berlin, Germany.ORCID 0000-0002-3877-295X
Oliver J BradyCentre of Mathematical Modelling for Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-3235-2129
Antonia PilicImmunization Unit (FG33), Robert Koch Institute, Seestraße 10, 13353 Berlin, Germany.ORCID 0000-0001-6502-7982
Gerhard DoblerDepartment of Microbiology of the German Armed Forces, 80937 Munich, Germany.
Wiebke HellenbrandImmunization Unit (FG33), Robert Koch Institute, Seestraße 10, 13353 Berlin, Germany.
Teresa M NygrenImmunization Unit (FG33), Robert Koch Institute, Seestraße 10, 13353 Berlin, Germany.ORCID 0000-0003-2930-8095

Funding

Medical Research Council MR/V031112/1
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) is a growing public health problem with increasing incidence and expanding risk areas. Improved prevention requires better understanding of the spatial distribution and ecological determinants of TBE transmission. However, a TBE risk map at sub-district level is still missing for Germany. We investigated the distribution and geo-spatial characteristics of 567 self-reported places of probable TBE infection (POI) from 359 cases notified in 2018-2020 in the study area of Bavaria and Baden-Wuerttemberg, compared to 41 confirmed TBE foci and 1701 random comparator places. We built an ecological niche model to interpolate TBE risk to the entire study area. POI were distributed heterogeneously at sub-district level, as predicted probabilities varied markedly across regions (range 0-93%). POI were spatially associated with abiotic, biotic, and anthropogenic geo-spatial characteristics, including summer precipitation, population density, and annual frost days. The model performed with 69% sensitivity and 63% specificity at an optimised probability threshold (0.28) and an area under the curve of 0.73. We observed high predictive probabilities in small-scale areas, consistent with the known circulation of the TBE virus in spatially restricted microfoci. Supported by further field work, our findings may help identify new TBE foci. Our fine-grained risk map could supplement targeted prevention in risk areas.

Indexed as

Baden-WuerttembergBavariaecological niche modellingGermanyrisk mappingspatial epidemiologytick-borne encephalitis

Identifiers

PMID35336218
PMCPMC8953713

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.