Evidence map›Paper›PMID 35332057›Full record

ArticleBMJ global health2022

Country-specific estimates of unintended pregnancy and abortion incidence: a global comparative analysis of levels in 2015-2019.

Jonathan Marc Bearak, Anna Popinchalk, Cynthia Beavin, Bela Ganatra, Ann-Beth Moller, Özge Tunçalp, Leontine Alkema

Registry-linked trialAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMJ global health, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT06307002 (Evaluating the Impact of a Contraception Education Game), which is not on this map. Cited by 118 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
118citing papers in PubMed, 3 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

NCT06307002 nacompletednot on this mapstarted 2024, after this paper: background citation

Evaluating the Impact of a Contraception Education Game: What's My Method? on Contraceptive Self-efficacy and Clinical Outcomes in Barbados

TypeinterventionalSponsorQuinnipiac UniversityRan2024 to 2024Enrolled70ConditionsContraception BehaviorArmsPlaying a contraception education videogame
3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

118 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  5. 'Global health action · 2026
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  10. Contraception and Amenorrhea: An Exploratory Cross-Sectional Study on Acceptability in Filipino/Filipino-American Women.Journal of transcultural nursing : official journal of the Transcultural Nursing Society · 2026
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58 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Jonathan Marc BearakResearch, Guttmacher Institute, New York, New York, USA jbearak@guttmacher.org.ORCID 0000-0002-3207-1431
Anna PopinchalkResearch, Guttmacher Institute, New York, New York, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-2141-5662
Cynthia BeavinResearch, Guttmacher Institute, New York, New York, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-9027-9783
Bela GanatraUNDP/UNFPA/UNICEF/WHO/World Bank Special Programme of Research, Development and Research Training in Human Reproduction, Department of Sexual and Reproductive Health and Research, WHO, Geneva, Switzerland.ORCID 0000-0002-4812-4577
Ann-Beth MollerUNDP/UNFPA/UNICEF/WHO/World Bank Special Programme of Research, Development and Research Training in Human Reproduction, Department of Sexual and Reproductive Health and Research, WHO, Geneva, Switzerland.
Özge TunçalpUNDP/UNFPA/UNICEF/WHO/World Bank Special Programme of Research, Development and Research Training in Human Reproduction, Department of Sexual and Reproductive Health and Research, WHO, Geneva, Switzerland.ORCID 0000-0002-5370-682X
Leontine AlkemaDepartment of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, Massachusetts, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-8806-5957

Funding

World Health Organization 001
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

introductionInternationally comparable estimates of unintended pregnancy and abortion incidence can illuminate disparities in sexual and reproductive health and autonomy. Country-specific estimates are essential to enable international comparison, and to inform country-level policy and programming.

methodsWe developed a Bayesian model which jointly estimated unintended pregnancy and abortion rates using information on contraceptive needs and use, contraceptive method mix, birth rates, the proportions of births from unintended pregnancies and abortion incidence data. Main outcomes were the estimated rates of unintended pregnancy and abortion for 150 countries and territories, reported for the 5-year period 2015-2019, as annual averages per 1000 women aged 15-49 years.

resultsEstimated unintended pregnancy rates ranged from 11 (80% uncertainty interval: 9 to 13) in Montenegro to 145 (131 to 159) in Uganda per 1000 women aged 15-49 years. Between-country heterogeneity was substantial in all Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) regions, but was greatest in sub-Saharan Africa. Estimated abortion rates ranged from 5 (5 to 6) in Singapore to 80 (55 to 113) in Georgia. Variation between country estimates was similar in all SDG regions except for Europe and Northern America, where estimated abortion rates were generally lower.

conclusionThe estimates reflect variation in the degree to unintended pregnancy and abortion that are experienced in countries throughout the world. This evidence highlights the importance of investing in access to contraception and comprehensive abortion care, including in regions which may have lower rates of unintended pregnancy or abortion, respectively, as countries may differ substantially from regional averages.

Indexed as

Abortion, InducedPregnancy, UnplannedBayes TheoremData CollectionFemaleHumansIncidencePregnancypublic health

Identifiers

PMID35332057
PMCPMC8943721

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Registered trials

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.