ArticlePalliative medicine2022
The development of the ADO-SQ model to predict 1-year mortality in patients with COPD.
Article in Palliative medicine, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
6 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 10 citations in OpenAlex.
- Community-based prediction models of cardiovascular events, acute exacerbations and all-cause mortality in individuals with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis on behalf of the International Cardiovascular and Respiratory Alliance.BMJ open respiratory research · 2026Pooled it
- An Interpretable AdaBoost Model for 1-Year Readmission Risk Prediction in AECOPD Patients with Hypertension.International journal of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease · 2026Article
- Prognostic Models for Disease Progression and Outcomes in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.Journal of clinical medicine · 2025Review
- Targeted Digital Health Intervention in End-of-Life and Hospice Care: A Scoping Review.Journal of advanced nursing · 2025Article
- Development and Validation of a Risk Prediction Model to Identify Women With Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease for Proactive Palliative Care.Respirology (Carlton, Vic.) · 2025Article
- Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
9 authors at 7 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundGoals of end-of-life care must be adapted to the needs of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) who are in the last phase of life. However, identification of those patients is limited by moderate performances of existing prognostic models and by limited validation of the often-recommended surprise question.
aimTo develop a clinical prediction model to predict 1-year mortality in patients with COPD.
designProspective study using logistic regression to develop a model in two steps: (1) external validation of the ADO, BODEX, or CODEX models (A = age; B = body mass index; C = comorbidity; D = dyspnea; EX = exacerbations; O = airflow obstruction); (2) updating of best performing model and extending it with the surprise question. Discriminative performance of the new model was assessed using internal-external validation and measured with area under the curve (AUC). A nomogram and web application were developed. SETTINGS/
participantsPatients with COPD from five hospitals (September-November 2017).
resultsOf the 358 included patients (median age 69.5 years, 50% male), 63 (17%) died within a year. The ADO index (AUC 0.73) had the best discriminative ability compared to the BODEX (AUC 0.71) or CODEX (AUC 0.68), and was extended with the surprise question. The resulting ADO-surprise question (SQ) model had an AUC of 0.79.
conclusionThe ADO-SQ model offers improved discriminative performance for predicting 1-year mortality compared to the surprise question, ADO, BODEX, or CODEX. A user-friendly nomogram and web application (https://dnieboer.shinyapps.io/copd) were developed. Further external validation of the ADO-SQ in patient groups is needed.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.