ArticleInternational journal of environmental research and public health2022
Real-Time Detection of Flu Season Onset: A Novel Approach to Flu Surveillance.
Article in International journal of environmental research and public health, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
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Who cites it
4 citing papers in PubMed.
- Learning from pandemics: Feature selection and clustering for robust digital disease nowcasting.PloS one · 2026Article
- Identification of Statewide Hotspots for Respiratory Disease Targets Using Wastewater Monitoring Data.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2025Article
- Characterizing acute respiratory infections in primary care for better management of viral infections.NPJ primary care respiratory medicine · 2025Article
- A Predictive Model of the Start of Annual Influenza Epidemics.Microorganisms · 2024Article
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Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The current gold standard for detection of flu season onset in the USA is done retrospectively, where flu season is detected after it has already started. We aimed to create a new surveillance strategy capable of detecting flu season onset prior to its starting. We used an established data generation method that combines Google search volume and historical flu activity data to simulate real-time estimates of flu activity. We then applied a method known as change-point detection to the generated data to determine the point in time that identifies the initial uptick in flu activity which indicates the imminent onset of flu season. Our strategy exhibits a high level of accuracy in predicting the onset of flu season at 86%. Additionally, on average, we detected the onset three weeks prior to the official start of flu season. The results provide evidence to support both the feasibility and efficacy of our strategy to improve the current standard of flu surveillance. The improvement may provide valuable support and lead time for public health officials to take appropriate actions to prevent and control the spread of the flu.
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