A multicentre cohort study assessing the utility of routine blood tests as adjuncts to identify complete responders in rectal cancer following neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy.

purposeManagement of rectal cancer with a complete clinical response (cCR) to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (NACRT) is controversial. Some advocate "watch and wait" programmes and organ-preserving surgery. Central to these strategies is the ability to accurately preoperatively distinguish cCR from residual disease (RD). We sought to identify if post-NACRT (preoperative) inflammatory markers act as an adjunct to MRI and endoscopy findings for distinguishing cCR from RD in rectal cancer.

methodsPatients from three specialist rectal cancer centres were screened for inclusion (2010-2015). For inclusion, patients were required to have completed NACRT, had a post-NACRT MRI (to assess mrTRG) and proceeded to total mesorectal excision (TME). Endoluminal response was assessed on endoscopy at 6-8 weeks post-NACRT. Pathological response to therapy was calculated using a three-point tumour regression grade system (TRG1-3). Neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), serum albumin (SAL), CEA and CA19-9 levels post-NACRT (preoperatively) were recorded. Variables were compared between those who had RD on post-operative pathology and those with ypCR. Statistical analysis was performed using SPSS (version 21).

resultsSix hundred forty-six patients were screened, of which 422 were suitable for inclusion. A cCR rate of 25.5% (n = 123) was observed. Sixty patients who achieved cCR were excluded from final analysis as they underwent organ-preserving surgery (local excision) leaving 63 ypCR patients compared to 359 with RD. On multivariate analysis, combining cCR on MRI and endoscopy with NLR < 5 demonstrated the greatest odds of ypCR on final histological assessment [OR 6.503 (1.594-11.652]) p < 0.001]. This method had the best diagnostic accuracy (AUC = 0.962 95% CI 0.936-0.987), compared to MRI (AUC = 0.711 95% CI 0.650-0.773) or endoscopy (AUC = 0.857 95% CI 0.811-0.902) alone or used together (AUC = 0.926 95% CI 0.892-0.961).

conclusionCombining post-NACRT inflammatory markers with restaging MRI and endoscopy findings adds another avenue to aid distinguishing RD from cCR in rectal cancer.