ArticleNature communications2022
Reconstructing antibody dynamics to estimate the risk of influenza virus infection.
Article in Nature communications, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 21 papers.
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Who cites it
21 citing papers in PubMed, 28 citations in OpenAlex.
- Multi-source agent-based modeling to optimize influenza mitigation strategies in Hong Kong.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Measuring population immunity against influenza using individual antibody titres: a multicountry, retrospective observational study.The Lancet. Infectious diseases · 2026Observational
- Hemagglutination Inhibition and Alternate Serologic Responses Following Influenza A(H3N2) Virus Infection.Influenza and other respiratory viruses · 2026Article
- Hemagglutination inhibition and alternate serologic responses following Influenza A(H3N2) virus infection.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026Article
- Kinetics of antibodies and risk of respiratory syncytial virus infection: a longitudinal cohort in Taizhou City, eastern China.BMC medicine · 2026Article
- SARS-CoV-2 neutralising antibody profiles reveal variant specific antibody dynamics and regional differences in infection histories in Malawi.PLOS global public health · 2026Article
- Dynamics of endemic virus re-emergence in children in the USA following the COVID-19 pandemic (2022-23): a prospective, multicentre, longitudinal, immunoepidemiological surveillance study.The Lancet. Infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Genetic characterization of influenza A viruses circulating in Hong Kong, China, 2023: the first influenza epidemic after the lifting of 2.5 years of COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions.Emerging microbes & infections · 2025Article
- Waning in influenza vaccine effectiveness against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09-associated hospitalization in children in 2012/2013.Epidemiology and infection · 2025Article
- Emergence of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron lineages shifted antibody-mediated protection curves.iScience · 2025Article
- serojump: A Bayesian tool for inferring infection timing and antibody kinetics from longitudinal serological data.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Reconciling heterogeneous dengue virus infection risk estimates from different study designs.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- Serodynamics: A primer and synthetic review of methods for epidemiological inference using serological data.Epidemics · 2024Review
- Reconstructed influenza A/H3N2 infection histories reveal variation in incidence and antibody dynamics over the life course.PLoS biology · 2024Article
- Reconciling heterogeneous dengue virus infection risk estimates from different study designs.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2024Article
- Incidence of laboratory-confirmed influenza and RSV and associated presenteeism and absenteeism among healthcare personnel, Israel, influenza seasons 2016 to 2019.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2024Article
- Reconstructed influenza A/H3N2 infection histories reveal variation in incidence and antibody dynamics over the life course.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2024Article
- Determinants of epidemic size and the impacts of lulls in seasonal influenza virus circulation.Nature communications · 2024Article
- Co-evolution of immunity and seasonal influenza viruses.Nature reviews. Microbiology · 2023Review
- serosim: An R package for simulating serological data arising from vaccination, epidemiological and antibody kinetics processes.PLoS computational biology · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
- Erratum issued
Authors and funding
11 authors at 4 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
For >70 years, a 4-fold or greater rise in antibody titer has been used to confirm influenza virus infections in paired sera, despite recognition that this heuristic can lack sensitivity. Here we analyze with a novel Bayesian model a large cohort of 2353 individuals followed for up to 5 years in Hong Kong to characterize influenza antibody dynamics and develop an algorithm to improve the identification of influenza virus infections. After infection, we estimate that hemagglutination-inhibiting (HAI) titers were boosted by 16-fold on average and subsequently decrease by 14% per year. In six epidemics, the infection risks for adults were 3%-19% while the infection risks for children were 1.6-4.4 times higher than that of younger adults. Every two-fold increase in pre-epidemic HAI titer was associated with 19%-58% protection against infection. Our inferential framework clarifies the contributions of age and pre-epidemic HAI titers to characterize individual infection risk.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.