ArticleScientific reports2022
A hierarchical Bayesian entry time realignment method to study the long-term natural history of diseases.
Article in Scientific reports, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed.
- Determinants of Four-Year Visual Acuity Loss in Geographic Atrophy: An Analysis of Age-Related Eye Disease Study and Age-Related Eye Disease Study 2.Ophthalmology · 2025Trial
- A Novel Pixel-Based Spatial Modeling Framework for Mapping At-Risk Retina in Geographic Atrophy Progression.Ophthalmology science · 2026Article
- Long-term natural history of ellipsoid zone width inThe British journal of ophthalmology · 2025Article
- Establishing a natural history of X-linked dystonia parkinsonism.Brain communications · 2023Article
- METformin for the MINimization of Geographic Atrophy Progression (METforMIN): A Randomized Trial.Ophthalmology scienceArticle
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
Abstract
A major question in clinical science is how to study the natural course of a chronic disease from inception to end, which is challenging because it is impractical to follow patients over decades. Here, we developed BETR (Bayesian entry time realignment), a hierarchical Bayesian method for investigating the long-term natural history of diseases using data from patients followed over short durations. A simulation study shows that BETR outperforms an existing method that ignores patient-level variation in progression rates. BETR, when combined with a common Bayesian model comparison tool, can identify the correct disease progression function nearly 100% of the time, with high accuracy in estimating the individual disease durations and progression rates. Application of BETR in patients with geographic atrophy, a disease with a known natural history model, shows that it can identify the correct disease progression model. Applying BETR in patients with Huntington's disease demonstrates that the progression of motor symptoms follows a second order function over approximately 20 years.
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Registered trials
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