A predictive model incorporating inflammation markers for high-grade surgical complications following liver resection for hepatocellular carcinoma.

backgroundSystemic inflammation and immune deficiency predispose surgical patients to infection and adversely affect postoperative recovery. We aimed to evaluate the prognostic ability of inflammation and immune-nutritional markers and to develop a predictive model for high-grade complications after resection of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

methodsThis study enrolled 1431 patients undergoing liver resection for primary HCC at a medical center. Preoperative neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio, prognostic nutritional index, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score, Albumin-Bilirubin score, Fibrosis-4 score, and Aspartate Aminotransferase to Platelet Ratio Index score were assessed. Stepwise backward variable elimination was conducted to determine the factors associated with Clavien-Dindo grade III to V complications within 30-day postoperative period. The predictive model was internally validated for discrimination performance using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).

resultsA total of 106 (7.4%) patients developed high-grade complications. Four factors independently predicted a high-grade postoperative complication and were integrated into the predictive model, including NLR (adjusted odds ratio: 1.10, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.02-1.19), diabetes mellitus, extent of hepatectomy, and intraoperative blood loss. The AUC of the model was 0.755 (95% CI, 0.678-0.832) in the validation dataset. Using the cutoff value based on Youden's index, the sensitivity and specificity of the risk score were 59.0% and 76.3%, respectively.

conclusionPreoperative NLR independently predicted a high-grade complication after resection of HCC. The predictive model allows for identification of high-risk patients and appropriate modifications of perioperative care to improve postoperative outcomes.