Evidence map›Paper›PMID 35313577›Full record

ArticlemedRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences2022

The impact of COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions on future respiratory syncytial virus transmission in South Africa.

Samantha Bents, Cécile Viboud, Bryan Grenfell, Alexandra Hogan, Stefano Tempia, Anne von Gottberg, Jocelyn Moyes, Sibongile Walaza, Cheryl Cohen, Rachel Baker

Abstract readPreprint
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
0citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Samantha BentsDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.
Cécile ViboudFogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, United States.
Bryan GrenfellDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.
Alexandra HoganSchool of Population Health, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
Stefano TempiaCentre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa.
Anne von GottbergCentre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa.
Jocelyn MoyesCentre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa.
Sibongile WalazaCentre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa.
Cheryl CohenCentre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa.
Rachel BakerPrinceton Environmental Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the South African government employed various nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in order to reduce the spread of SARS-CoV-2. In addition to mitigating transmission of SARS-CoV-2, these public health measures have also functioned in slowing the spread of other endemic respiratory pathogens. Surveillance data from South Africa indicates low circulation of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) throughout the 2020-2021 Southern Hemisphere winter seasons. Here we fit age-structured epidemiological models to national surveillance data to predict the 2022 RSV outbreak following two suppressed seasons. We project a 32% increase in the peak number of monthly hospitalizations among infants ≤ 2 years, with older infants (6-23 month olds) experiencing a larger portion of severe disease burden than typical. Our results suggest that hospital system readiness should be prepared for an intense RSV season in early 2022.

Identifiers

PMID35313577
PMCPMC8936096

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.