Evidence map›Paper›PMID 35311401›Full record

ArticleMedical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making2022

Microsimulation Model Calibration with Approximate Bayesian Computation in R: A Tutorial.

Peter Shewmaker, Stavroula A Chrysanthopoulou, Rowan Iskandar, Derek Lake, Earic Jutkowitz

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
10citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

10 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Article
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  5. Article
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  8. Article
  9. Calibration and Validation of the Colorectal Cancer and Adenoma Incidence and Mortality (CRC-AIM) Microsimulation Model Using Deep Neural Networks.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2023
    Article
  10. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Peter ShewmakerCenter for Gerontology and Healthcare Research, Brown University, Providence, RI, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-2139-6687
Stavroula A ChrysanthopoulouCenter for Statistical Sciences, Brown University, Providence, RI, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-5580-4397
Rowan IskandarCenter for Evidence Synthesis in Health, Brown University, Providence, RI, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-8680-4824
Derek LakeCenter for Gerontology and Healthcare Research, Brown University, Providence, RI, USA.
Earic JutkowitzCenter for Gerontology and Healthcare Research, Brown University, Providence, RI, USA.

Funding

Translational ScienceP30AI042853 · NIAID · MIRIAM HOSPITAL · PI CURT G BECKWITH · 1998 to 2026
$51.7M
Person-Reported and Health Care Utilization Outcomes of Home and Community Based Care Recipients With and Without Alzheimer's Disease and its Related DementiasRF1AG069771 · NIA · UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA · PI JUTKOWITZ, ERIC, SHIPPEE, TETYANA P. · 2020 to 2023
$2.4M
Microsimulation Modeling to Compare the Effectiveness and Cost-Effectiveness of Nondrug Interventions to Manage Clinical Symptoms in Racially/Ethnically Diverse Persons with DementiaR01AG060871 · NIA · BROWN UNIVERSITY · PI JUTKOWITZ, ERIC · 2019 to 2022
$1.7M
Informal Resources of Persons Living with Alzheimer's Disease and Related Dementias: Impact on Hospitalizations, Potentially Avoidable Hopsitalizations and Nursing Home AdmissionsR21AG059623 · NIA · BROWN UNIVERSITY · PI JUTKOWITZ, ERIC · 2018 to 2019
$454k
NIAID NIH HHS P30 AI042853NIA NIH HHS R01 AG060871NIA NIH HHS R21 AG059623NIA NIH HHS RF1 AG069771
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Mathematical health policy models, including microsimulation models (MSMs), are widely used to simulate complex processes and predict outcomes consistent with available data. Calibration is a method to estimate parameter values such that model predictions are similar to observed outcomes of interest. Bayesian calibration methods are popular among the available calibration techniques, given their strong theoretical basis and flexibility to incorporate prior beliefs and draw values from the posterior distribution of model parameters and hence the ability to characterize and evaluate parameter uncertainty in the model outcomes. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is an approach to calibrate complex models in which the likelihood is intractable, focusing on measuring the difference between the simulated model predictions and outcomes of interest in observed data. Although ABC methods are increasingly being used, there is limited practical guidance in the medical decision-making literature on approaches to implement ABC to calibrate MSMs. In this tutorial, we describe the Bayesian calibration framework, introduce the ABC approach, and provide step-by-step guidance for implementing an ABC algorithm to calibrate MSMs, using 2 case examples based on a microsimulation model for dementia. We also provide the R code for applying these methods.

Indexed as

AlgorithmsModels, TheoreticalBayes TheoremCalibrationComputer SimulationHealth PolicyHumansapproximate Bayesian computationcalibrationdementiamicrosimulation

Identifiers

PMID35311401
PMCPMC9198004

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceTDM
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.