Evidence map›Paper›PMID 35306749›Full record

ArticleTransboundary and emerging diseases2022

Impact of mass vaccination on the spatiotemporal dynamics of FMD outbreaks in India, 2008-2016.

Umanga Gunasekera, Jitendra Kumar Biswal, Gustavo Machado, Rajeev Ranjan, Saravanan Subramaniam, Manoranjan Rout, Jajati Keshari Mohapatra, Bramhadev Pattnaik, Rabindra Prasad Singh, Jonathan Arzt and 2 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Transboundary and emerging diseases, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
12citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

12 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Review
  5. Article
  6. Determinants of Foot and Mouth Virus in Eastern Algeria.Tropical animal health and production · 2025
    Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. The prevalence of foot-and-mouth disease in Asia.Frontiers in veterinary science · 2023
    Review
  10. Review
  11. Article
  12. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

12 authors.

Umanga GunasekeraDepartment of Veterinary Population Medicine, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Minnesota, St Paul, Minnesota, USA.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5924-2288
Jitendra Kumar BiswalICAR-Directorate of Foot and Mouth Disease, Mukteswar, Nainital, Uttarakhand, India.
Gustavo MachadoDepartment of Population Health and Pathobiology, College of Veterinary Medicine, Raleigh, North Carolina, USA.
Rajeev RanjanICAR-Directorate of Foot and Mouth Disease, Mukteswar, Nainital, Uttarakhand, India.
Saravanan SubramaniamICAR-Directorate of Foot and Mouth Disease, Mukteswar, Nainital, Uttarakhand, India.
Manoranjan RoutICAR-Directorate of Foot and Mouth Disease, Mukteswar, Nainital, Uttarakhand, India.
Jajati Keshari MohapatraICAR-Directorate of Foot and Mouth Disease, Mukteswar, Nainital, Uttarakhand, India.
Bramhadev PattnaikICAR-Directorate of Foot and Mouth Disease, Mukteswar, Nainital, Uttarakhand, India.
Rabindra Prasad SinghICAR-Directorate of Foot and Mouth Disease, Mukteswar, Nainital, Uttarakhand, India.
Jonathan ArztForeign Animal Disease Research Unit, USDA-ARS, Plum Island Animal Disease Center, Greenport, New York, USA.
Andres PerezDepartment of Veterinary Population Medicine, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Minnesota, St Paul, Minnesota, USA.
Kimberly VanderWaalDepartment of Veterinary Population Medicine, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Minnesota, St Paul, Minnesota, USA.

Funding

United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Agricultural Research Service (ARS) 32000-061-00D
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is endemic in India, where circulation of serotypes O, A and Asia1 is frequent. Here, we provide an epidemiological assessment of the ongoing mass vaccination programs in regard to post-vaccination monitoring and outbreak occurrence. The objective of this study was assessing the contribution of mass vaccination campaigns in reducing the risk of FMD in India from 2008 to 2016 by evaluating sero-monitoring data and modelling the spatiotemporal dynamics of reported outbreaks. Through analyzing antibody titre data from >1 million animals sampled as part of pre- and post-vaccination monitoring, we show that the percent of animals with inferred immunological protection (based on ELISA) was highly variable across states but generally increased through time. In addition, the number of outbreaks in a state was negatively correlated with the percent of animals with inferred protection. We then analyzed the distribution of reported FMD outbreaks across states using a Bayesian space-time model. This approach provides better acuity to disentangle the effect of mass vaccination programs on outbreak occurrence, while accounting for other factors that contribute to spatiotemporal variability in outbreak counts, notably proximity to international borders and inherent spatiotemporal correlations in incidence. This model demonstrated a ∼50% reduction in the risk of outbreaks in states that were part of the vaccination program. In addition, after controlling for spatial autocorrelation in the data, states that had international borders experienced heightened risk of FMD outbreaks. These findings help inform risk-based control strategies for India as the country progresses towards reducing reported clinical disease.

Indexed as

Cattle DiseasesFoot-and-Mouth DiseaseFoot-and-Mouth Disease VirusAnimalsBayes TheoremCattleDisease OutbreaksMass VaccinationVaccinationBayesian regressionendemic settingmass vaccinationrisk analysistransboundary

Identifiers

PMID35306749
PMCPMC9790522

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.