ArticleAmerican journal of preventive medicine2022
Impact of Low Rates of Influenza on Next-Season Influenza Infections.
Article in American journal of preventive medicine, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
16 citing papers in PubMed, 27 citations in OpenAlex.
- Epidemiology and severity of pediatric influenza hospitalizations before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: a surveillance study of the Canadian immunization monitoring program (IMPACT), 2012-2023.Lancet regional health. Americas · 2026Article
- An agent-based model of the effects of limited vaccination on novel respiratory infections.Journal of clinical epidemiology · 2026Article
- Hospitalized children with influenza virus: a 17 year-long observational study including the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic and COVID-19 pandemic.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Observational
- Genetic characterization of influenza A viruses circulating in Hong Kong, China, 2023: the first influenza epidemic after the lifting of 2.5 years of COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions.Emerging microbes & infections · 2025Article
- Estimated Burden of Influenza and Direct and Indirect Benefits of Influenza Vaccination.JAMA network open · 2025Article
- Increasing child vaccination coverage can reduce influenza cases across age groups: An agent-based modeling study.The Journal of infection · 2025Article
- Influenza Vaccination, Household Composition, and Race-Based Differences in Influenza Incidence: An Agent-Based Modeling Study.American journal of public health · 2025Article
- Influenza vaccine related periostitis: A case report of a rare complication.Radiology case reports · 2024Article
- The Impact of the Good Behavior Game on Risk for Drug Use Disorder in an Agent-Based Model of Southern Sweden.Journal of studies on alcohol and drugs · 2023Article
- The Impact of Coronavirus Disease 2019 on Viral, Bacterial, and Fungal Respiratory Infections.Clinics in chest medicine · 2023Review
- Article
- How the COVID 19 pandemic will shape influenza public health initiatives: The UK experience.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2022Article
- Can a Two-Dose Influenza Vaccine Regimen Better Protect Older Adults? An Agent-Based Modeling Study.Vaccines · 2022Article
- National Influenza Annual Report, Canada, 2021-2022: A brief, late influenza epidemic.Canada communicable disease report = Releve des maladies transmissibles au Canada · 2022Article
- Awareness, knowledge and attitude toward influenza vaccination in several population groups in China: A cross-sectional study.Frontiers in public health · 2022Article
- Modeling the Impact of COVID-19 Mitigation Strategies in Pennsylvania, USA.MDM policy & practiceArticle
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors at 1 institution in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
introductionInterventions to curb the spread of COVID-19 during the 2020-2021 influenza season essentially eliminated influenza during that season. Given waning antibody titers over time, future residual population immunity against influenza will be reduced. The implication for the subsequent 2021-2022 influenza season is unknown.
methodsAn agent-based model of influenza implemented in the Framework for Reconstructing Epidemiological Dynamics simulation platform was used to estimate cases and hospitalizations over 2 successive influenza seasons. The impact of reduced residual immunity owing to protective measures in the first season was estimated over varying levels of similarity (cross-immunity) between influenza strains over the seasons.
resultsWhen cross-immunity between first- and second-season strains was low, a decreased first season had limited impact on second-season cases. High levels of cross-immunity resulted in a greater impact on the second season. This impact was modified by the transmissibility of strains in the 2 seasons. The model estimated a possible increase of 13.52%-46.95% in cases relative to that in a normal season when strains have the same transmissibility and 40%-50% cross-immunity in a season after a very low one.
conclusionsGiven the light 2020-2021 influenza season, cases may increase by as much as 50% in 2021-2022, although the increase could be much less, depending on cross-immunity from past infection and transmissibility of strains. Enhanced vaccine coverage or continued interventions to reduce transmission could reduce this high season. Young children may have a higher risk in 2021-2022 owing to limited exposure to infection in the previous year.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.