ArticleInfection2022
The evaluation of preventive and control measures on congenital syphilis in Guangdong Province, China: a time series modeling study.
Article in Infection, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers.
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Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed.
- Article
- Analysis of the spatio-temporal pattern and evolutionary trends of syphilis at township level in Xining City, Qinghai Province, China from 2008 to 2024.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Spatiotemporal heterogeneity and socioeconomic determinants of syphilis incidence in Xining, Northwest China: a geospatial analysis.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Characteristics, management, and outcomes of early symptomatic congenital syphilis in infants at a tertiary specialist hospital in Beijing from 2008 to 2024.Infectious diseases & immunity · 2026Article
- Article
- Estimating the Temporal Epidemiological Trends of Tuberculosis Incidence by Using an Advanced Theta Method.The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene · 2024Article
- Prediction of influenza outbreaks in Fuzhou, China: comparative analysis of forecasting models.BMC public health · 2024Article
- Evaluating the long-term impact of COVID-19-associated public health interventions on zoonotic and vector-borne diseases in China: an interrupted time series analysis.Journal of translational medicine · 2024Article
- Preconception syphilis seroprevalence and association with duration of marriage and age among married individuals in Guangdong Province, China: A population-based cross-sectional study.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2022Article
- Syphilis response policies and their assessments: A scoping review.Frontiers in public health · 2022Article
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Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
Abstract
purposeTo evaluate the effectiveness of preventive and control measures for congenital syphilis (CS) implemented since 2012 in Guangdong Province, China, and assess the epidemic trend in the near future.
methodsThe interrupted time series analysis was conducted to compare changes in slope and level of CS notification rate from 2005 to 2020 in Guangdong Province and its three regions with different economic developmental levels. The ARIMA model was established to predict the new CS case number of Guangdong Province in 2021.
resultsA total of 12,687 CS cases were reported from 2005 to 2020. The CS notification rate of the province had been increasing until 2012 (128.55 cases per 100,000 live births) and then been decreasing constantly, hitting the lowest point in 2020 (5.76 cases per 100,000 live births). The severe epidemic cluster shifted from the developed region to underdeveloped ones over time. The effectiveness of the measures was proved by the significant change in the slope of the notification rate which was found in both of the provinces (- 18.18, 95% CI - 25.63 to - 10.75) and two less-developed regions (- 10.49, 95% CI - 13.13 to - 7.86 and - 32.89, 95% CI - 41.67 to - 24.10, respectively). In the developed region where the notification rate had already been decreasing in the pre-implementation period, implementing these measures also aided in hastening the rate of descent. The CS case number in 2021 was predicted to be 48, indicating a low-level epidemic.
conclusionsThe preventive and control measures have assisted Guangdong Province to control CS effectively, of which the supportive ones ensured a successful implementation. For resource-limited countries where CS is still endemic, especially guaranteeing the support in financial subsidy, professional training, supervision and so on might trigger the effectiveness of other measures and eventually make significant and sustainable progress.
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