ArticleActa parasitologica2022
Climate Change Influences on the Potential Distribution of the Sand Fly Phlebotomus sergenti, Vector of Leishmania tropica in Morocco.
Article in Acta parasitologica, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers.
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11 citing papers in PubMed, 20 citations in OpenAlex.
- First record of Phlebotomus sergenti (Diptera: Psychodidae) in China and its potential epidemiological implications.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2026Article
- Cutaneous leishmaniasis disease and vector related knowledge in endemic communities in Ghana: A 2023 cross-sectional study in the Nkwanta South District.Journal of public health research · 2026Article
- The global burden and trends of cutaneous leishmaniasis from 1990 to 2021 with projections to 2036: a population-based study.Journal of health, population, and nutrition · 2026Article
- Early-warning prediction of visceral leishmaniasis mortality using a multivariate STL-deep learning hybrid approach on 20 years of monthly time series.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Leishmaniasis in Morocco: Epidemiology, Transmission Dynamics, and the Potential of Artificial Intelligence for Disease Management.Journal of parasitology research · 2026Review
- Global, regional, and national age-gender-specific trends, decomposition analysis, and Bayesian age-period-cohort modelling for projections of the burden of leishmaniasis: A population-based ecological study.Current research in parasitology & vector-borne diseases · 2026Article
- Climate change and its impact on spatial and temporal distribution of visceral leishmaniasis transmission risk in Nepal.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in the Context of Global Travel, Migration, Refugee Populations, and Humanitarian Crises.Clinics and practice · 2025Review
- The Uprise of Human Leishmaniasis in Tuscany, Central Italy: Clinical and Epidemiological Data from a Multicenter Study.Microorganisms · 2024Article
- Prevalence and Factors Related toAnimals : an open access journal from MDPI · 2023Article
- A Community Based Survey of Knowledge, Attitudes, and Practices Concerning Leishmaniasis in Central Morocco.Journal of community health · 2022Article
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Authors and funding
6 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundLeishmaniases are a vector-borne disease, re-emerging in several regions of the world posing a burden on public health. As other vector-borne diseases, climate change is a crucial factor affecting the evolution of leishmaniasis. In Morocco, anthroponotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ACL) is widespread geographically as many foci across the country, mainly in central Morocco. The objective of this study is to evaluate the potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of ACL due to Leishmania tropica, and its corresponding vector Phlebotomus sergenti in Morocco.
methodsUsing Ecological Niche Modeling (ENM) tool, the estimated geographical range shift of L. tropica and P. sergenti by 2050 was projected under two Representative's Concentration's Pathways (RCPs) to be 2.6 and RCP 8.5 respectively. P. sergenti records were obtained from field collections of the laboratory team and previously published entomological observations, while, epidemiological data for L. tropica were obtained from Moroccan Ministry of Health reports.
resultsOur models under present-day conditions indicated a probable expansion for L. tropica as well as for its vector in Morocco, P. sergenti. It showed a concentrated distribution in the west-central and northern area of Morocco. Future predictions anticipate expansion into areas not identified as suitable for P. sergenti under present conditions, particularly in northern and southeastern areas of Morocco. L. tropica is also expected to have high expansion in southern areas for the next 30 years in Morocco.
conclusionThis indicates that L. tropica and P. sergenti will continue to find suitable climate conditions in the future. A higher abundance of P. sergenti may indeed result in a higher transmission risk of ACL. This information is essential in developing a control plan for ACL in Morocco. However, future investigations on L. tropica reservoirs are needed to confirm our predictions.
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