Evidence map›Paper›PMID 35293010›Full record

ArticleSuicide & life-threatening behavior2022

Validating a predictive algorithm for suicide risk with Alaska Native populations.

Jennifer L Shaw, Julie A Beans, Carolyn Noonan, Julia J Smith, Mike Mosley, Kate M Lillie, Jaedon P Avey, Rebecca Ziebell, Gregory Simon

Open access · greenAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Suicide & life-threatening behavior, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
12citing papers in PubMed
1.7field-weighted citation impact, top 17% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

12 citing papers in PubMed, 10 citations in OpenAlex.

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  5. Are you worried someone in your household is at risk of suicide? Piloting ways to acceptably and feasibly increase safe firearm storage in rural Alaska.Injury prevention : journal of the International Society for Child and Adolescent Injury Prevention · 2026
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.

Jennifer L ShawDivision of Organizational Development and Innovation, Research and Data Services Department, Southcentral Foundation, Anchorage, Alaska, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-1824-6063
Julie A BeansDivision of Organizational Development and Innovation, Research and Data Services Department, Southcentral Foundation, Anchorage, Alaska, USA.
Carolyn NoonanInstitute for Research and Education to Advance Community Health, Washington State University, Seattle, Washington, USA.
Julia J SmithDivision of Organizational Development and Innovation, Research and Data Services Department, Southcentral Foundation, Anchorage, Alaska, USA.
Mike MosleyDivision of Organizational Development and Innovation, Research and Data Services Department, Southcentral Foundation, Anchorage, Alaska, USA.
Kate M LillieDivision of Organizational Development and Innovation, Research and Data Services Department, Southcentral Foundation, Anchorage, Alaska, USA.
Jaedon P AveyDivision of Organizational Development and Innovation, Research and Data Services Department, Southcentral Foundation, Anchorage, Alaska, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-3858-0595
Rebecca ZiebellKaiser Permanente Washington Health Research Institute, Seattle, Washington, USA.
Gregory SimonKaiser Permanente Washington Health Research Institute, Seattle, Washington, USA.
Southcentral Foundation · USKaiser Permanente Washington Health Research Institute · USWashington State University · US

Funding

The Administrative CoreP20GM103395 · NIGMS · UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA FAIRBANKS · PI STACY M. RASMUS · 2012 to 2026
$66.1M
Whose Depression Are We Measuring?: Considering the role of place on Black women’s depression outcomesU19MH121738 · NIMH · KAISER FOUNDATION RESEARCH INSTITUTE · PI SIMON, GREGORY E. · 2019 to 2023
$10.6M
Population-based Interventions to Improve Behavioral Health in a Tribal Healthcare SystemS06GM123545 · NIGMS · SOUTHCENTRAL FOUNDATION · PI HIRATSUKA, VANESSA Y · 2017 to 2020
$1.6M
NIGMS NIH HHS P20 GM103395NIGMS NIH HHS P20GM103395NIGMS NIH HHS S06 GM123545NIGMS NIH HHS S06GM123545NIMH NIH HHS U19 MH121738
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

introductionThe American Indian/Alaska Native (AI/AN) suicide rate in Alaska is twice the state rate and four times the U.S. rate. Healthcare systems need innovative methods of suicide risk detection. The Mental Health Research Network (MHRN) developed suicide risk prediction algorithms in a general U.S. PATIENT POPULATION:

methodsWe applied MHRN predictors and regression coefficients to electronic health records of AI/AN patients aged ≥13 years with behavioral health diagnoses and primary care visits between October 1, 2016, and March 30, 2018. Logistic regression assessed model accuracy for predicting and stratifying risk for suicide attempt within 90 days after a visit. We compared expected to observed risk and assessed model performance characteristics.

results10,864 patients made 47,413 primary care visits. Suicide attempt occurred after 589 (1.2%) visits. Visits in the top 5% of predicted risk accounted for 40% of actual attempts. Among visits in the top 0.5% of predicted risk, 25.1% were followed by suicide attempt. The best fitting model had an AUC of 0.826 (95% CI: 0.809-0.843).

conclusionsThe MHRN model accurately predicted suicide attempts among AI/AN patients. Future work should develop clinical and operational guidance for effective implementation of the model with this population.

Indexed as

Alaska NativesSuicide, AttemptedAlaskaAlgorithmsHumansViolenceAlaska Nativerisk predictionsuicide prevention

Identifiers

PMID35293010
PMCPMC9378560
OpenAlexW4220881462

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceTDM
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.