ArticleInternational journal of biometeorology2022
Estimating the seasonally varying effect of meteorological factors on the district-level incidence of acute watery diarrhea among under-five children of Iran, 2014-2018: a Bayesian hierarchical spatiotemporal model.
Article in International journal of biometeorology, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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8 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Rainfall and Temperature Influences on Childhood Diarrhea and the Effect Modification Role of Water and Sanitation Conditions: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2024Pooled it
- Seasonal and meteorological determinants of district level acute watery diarrhea incidence in Fiji, 2016-2023: a time-series analysis.BMC public health · 2026Article
- Patterns of acute watery diarrhea in Fiji: understanding the implications for water and sanitation services.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Meteorological factors association with under-five children diarrhea incidence in central Gondar zone, Northwest Ethiopia. A time series study.BMC research notes · 2025Article
- Spatiotemporal variation of under-5 children diarrhea incidence and associated meteorological factors in central Gondar zone, Northwest Ethiopia. A retrospective time series study.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Global Incidence of Diarrheal Diseases-An Update Using an Interpretable Predictive Model Based on XGBoost and SHAP: A Systematic Analysis.Nutrients · 2024Article
- Social disparities and inequalities in healthcare access and expenditures among Iranians exposed to sulfur mustard: a national study using spatio-temporal analysis.BMC health services research · 2023Article
- Effects of Ambient Temperature, Relative Humidity, and Precipitation on Diarrhea Incidence in Surabaya.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2023Article
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Abstract
Under-five years old acute watery diarrhea (U5AWD) accounts for most diarrheal diseases' burden, but little is known about the adjusted effect of meteorological and socioeconomic determinants. A dataset containing the seasonal numbers of U5AWD cases at the district level of Iran is collected through MOHME. Accordingly, the district-level standardized incidence ratio and Moran's I values are calculated to detect the significant clusters of U5AWD over sixteen seasons from 2014 to 2018. Additionally, the author tested twelve Bayesian hierarchical models in order to determine which one was the most accurate at forecasting seasonal number of incidents. Iran features a number of U5AWD hotspots, particularly in the southeast. An extended spatiotemporal model with seasonally varying coefficients and space-time interaction outperformed other models, and so became the paper's proposal in modeling U5AWD. Temperature demonstrated a global positive connection with seasonal U5AWD in districts (IRR: 1.0497; 95% CrI: 1.0254-1.0748), owing to its varying effects during the winter ((IRR: 1.0877; 95% CrI: 1.0408-1.1375) and fall (IRR: 1.0866; 95% CrI: 1.0405-1.1357) seasons. Also, elevation (IRR: 0.9997; 95% CrI: 0.9996-0.9998), piped drinking water (IRR: 0.9948; 95% CrI: 0.9933-0.9964), public sewerage network (IRR: 0.9965; 95% CrI: 0.9938-0.9992), years of schooling (IRR: 0.9649; 95% CrI: 0.944-0.9862), infrastructure-to-household size ratio (IRR: 0.9903; 95% CrI: 0.986-0.9946), wealth index (IRR: 0.9502; 95% CrI: 0.9231-0.9781), and urbanization (IRR: 0.9919; 95% CrI: 0.9893-0.9944) of districts were negatively associated with seasonal U5AWD incidence. Strategically, developing geoinformation alarm systems based on meteorological data might help predict U5AWD high-risk areas. The study also anticipates increased rates of U5AWD in districts with poor sanitation and socioeconomic level. Therefore, governments should take appropriate preventative actions in these sectors.
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