ArticleInfectious Disease Modelling2022
Heterogeneous epidemic modelling within an enclosed space and corresponding Bayesian estimation.
Article in Infectious Disease Modelling, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
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2 citing papers in PubMed.
- Assessing the dynamics and impact of COVID-19 vaccination on disease spread: A data-driven approach.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2024Article
- Fitting Early Phases of the COVID-19 Outbreak: A Comparison of the Performances of Used Models.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
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7 authors.
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Abstract
Since March 11th, 2020, COVID-19 has been a global pandemic for more than one years due to a long and infectious incubation period. This paper establishes a heterogeneous epidemic model that divides the incubation period into infectious and non-infectious and employs the Bayesian framework to model the 'Diamond Princess' enclosed space incident. The heterogeneity includes two different identities, two transmission methods, two different-size rooms, and six transmission stages. This model is also applicable to similar mixed structures, including closed schools, hospitals, and communities. As the COVID-19 pandemic continues, our mathematical modeling can provide management insights to the governments and policymakers on how the COVID-19 disease has spread and what prevention strategies still need to be taken.
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