ArticleSocial science & medicine (1982)2022
The path towards herd immunity: Predicting COVID-19 vaccination uptake through results from a stated choice study across six continents.
Article in Social science & medicine (1982), 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 19 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
19 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 44 citations in OpenAlex.
- A Systematic Review of Discrete Choice Experiments on Preferences for COVID-19 Vaccinations.The patient · 2025Pooled it
- The Evolving Landscape of Discrete Choice Experiments in Health Economics: A Systematic Review.PharmacoEconomics · 2025Pooled it
- Preferences for COVID-19 Vaccines: Systematic Literature Review of Discrete Choice Experiments.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2024Pooled it
- Time preferences and COVID-19 vaccination uptake.The European journal of health economics : HEPAC : health economics in prevention and care · 2026Article
- Social Media and the Evolution of Vaccine Preferences During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Discrete Choice Experiment.JMIR infodemiology · 2025Article
- Serological insights from SARS-CoV-2 heterologous prime and boost responses in Thailand.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Real-world COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness in Zimbabwe: A test-negative case-control study.Journal of public health in Africa · 2025Article
- COVID-19 Vaccine Preferences in General Populations in Canada, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States: Discrete Choice Experiment.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2024Article
- Review
- Vaccine decision making in New Zealand: a discrete choice experiment.BMC public health · 2024Article
- Healthcare professionals' perception and COVID-19 vaccination attitudes in North-Western Ghana: A multi-center analysis.PloS one · 2024Article
- Quantitative Synthesis of Factors Associated with COVID-19 Vaccine Acceptance and Vaccine Hesitancy in 185 Countries.Vaccines · 2023Article
- Trade-Offs between Vaccine Effectiveness and Vaccine Safety: Personal versus Policy Decisions.PharmacoEconomics - open · 2023Article
- Review
- Article
- COVID-19 Maternal Prevention Behavior and Future Intention to Vaccinate for Children.Pediatric reports · 2023Article
- Compliant citizens, defiant rebels or neither? Exploring change and complexity in COVID-19 vaccine attitudes and decisions in Bradford, UK: Findings from a follow-up qualitative study.Health expectations : an international journal of public participation in health care and health policy · 2023Article
- A cross-national study of multilevel determinants on public fully vaccination against COVID-19.Health & place · 2023Article
- Applications of discrete choice experiments in COVID-19 research: Disparity in survey qualities between health and transport fields.Journal of choice modelling · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
41 authors at 20 institutions in 19 countries.
Funding
Abstract
Despite unprecedented progress in developing COVID-19 vaccines, global vaccination levels needed to reach herd immunity remain a distant target, while new variants keep emerging. Obtaining near universal vaccine uptake relies on understanding and addressing vaccine resistance. Simple questions about vaccine acceptance however ignore that the vaccines being offered vary across countries and even population subgroups, and differ in terms of efficacy and side effects. By using advanced discrete choice models estimated on stated choice data collected in 18 countries/territories across six continents, we show a substantial influence of vaccine characteristics. Uptake increases if more efficacious vaccines (95% vs 60%) are offered (mean across study areas = 3.9%, range of 0.6%-8.1%) or if vaccines offer at least 12 months of protection (mean across study areas = 2.4%, range of 0.2%-5.8%), while an increase in severe side effects (from 0.001% to 0.01%) leads to reduced uptake (mean = -1.3%, range of -0.2% to -3.9%). Additionally, a large share of individuals (mean = 55.2%, range of 28%-75.8%) would delay vaccination by 3 months to obtain a more efficacious (95% vs 60%) vaccine, where this increases further if the low efficacy vaccine has a higher risk (0.01% instead of 0.001%) of severe side effects (mean = 65.9%, range of 41.4%-86.5%). Our work highlights that careful consideration of which vaccines to offer can be beneficial. In support of this, we provide an interactive tool to predict uptake in a country as a function of the vaccines being deployed, and also depending on the levels of infectiousness and severity of circulating variants of COVID-19.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.