ArticleFrontiers in public health2022
Simulating Transmission Scenarios of the Delta Variant of SARS-CoV-2 in Australia.
Article in Frontiers in public health, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 19 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
19 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Predictive models for health outcomes due to SARS-CoV-2, including the effect of vaccination: a systematic review.Systematic reviews · 2024Pooled it
- Do COVID-19 CT features vary between patients from within and outside mainland China? Findings from a meta-analysis.Frontiers in public health · 2022Pooled it
- Impact of opinion dynamics on recurrent pandemic waves: balancing risk aversion and peer pressure.Interface focus · 2025Article
- Multi-scale phylodynamic modelling of rapid punctuated pathogen evolution.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Emergence of shield immunity during spatial contagions.Npj complexity · 2025Article
- Bounded risk disposition explains Turing patterns and tipping points during spatial contagions.Royal Society open science · 2024Article
- Measuring unequal distribution of pandemic severity across census years, variants of concern and interventions.Population health metrics · 2023Article
- Spatial and Temporal Analysis of COVID-19 Cases in West Java, Indonesia and Its Influencing Factors.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2023Article
- Modelling Aotearoa New Zealand's COVID-19 protection framework and the transition away from the elimination strategy.Royal Society open science · 2023Article
- Persistence of the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 in Australia: The impact of fluctuating social distancing.PLOS global public health · 2023Article
- Phase-wise evaluation and optimization of non-pharmaceutical interventions to contain the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S.Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
- A general framework for optimising cost-effectiveness of pandemic response under partial intervention measures.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- A framework for considering the utility of models when facing tough decisions in public health: a guideline for policy-makers.Health research policy and systems · 2022Article
- Modelling herd immunity requirements in Queensland: impact of vaccination effectiveness, hesitancy and variants of SARS-CoV-2.Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · 2022Article
- Is the SARS CoV-2 Omicron Variant Deadlier and More Transmissible Than Delta Variant?International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Review
- Delta Variant: The New Challenge of COVID-19 Pandemic, an Overview of Epidemiological, Clinical, and Immune Characteristics.Acta bio-medica : Atenei Parmensis · 2022Review
- Mitigating the SARS-CoV-2 Delta disease burden in Australia by non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccinating children: a modelling analysis.BMC medicine · 2022Article
- Simulating Transmission Scenarios of the Delta Variant of SARS-CoV-2 in Australia.Frontiers in public health · 2022Article
- Progress of cGAS-STING signaling in response to SARS-CoV-2 infection.Frontiers in immunology · 2022Review
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
An outbreak of the Delta (B.1.617.2) variant of SARS-CoV-2 that began around mid-June 2021 in Sydney, Australia, quickly developed into a nation-wide epidemic. The ongoing epidemic is of major concern as the Delta variant is more infectious than previous variants that circulated in Australia in 2020. Using a re-calibrated agent-based model, we explored a feasible range of non-pharmaceutical interventions, including case isolation, home quarantine, school closures, and stay-at-home restrictions (i.e., "social distancing.") Our modelling indicated that the levels of reduced interactions in workplaces and across communities attained in Sydney and other parts of the nation were inadequate for controlling the outbreak. A counter-factual analysis suggested that if 70% of the population followed tight stay-at-home restrictions, then at least 45 days would have been needed for new daily cases to fall from their peak to below ten per day. Our model predicted that, under a progressive vaccination rollout, if 40-50% of the Australian population follow stay-at-home restrictions, the incidence will peak by mid-October 2021: the peak in incidence across the nation was indeed observed in mid-October. We also quantified an expected burden on the healthcare system and potential fatalities across Australia.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.