ArticleClinical epidemiology2022
Estimating the Future Burden of Myocardial Infarction in France Until 2035: An Illness-Death Model-Based Approach.
Article in Clinical epidemiology, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
4 citing papers in PubMed, 10 citations in OpenAlex.
- Assessing rheumatoid arthritis prevalence from 1990 to 2040: viewing global inequities through the lens of sociodemographic development.Clinical rheumatology · 2026Article
- Impact of Smoking Reduction Scenarios on the Burden of Myocardial Infarction in the French Population Until 2035.Clinical epidemiology · 2024Article
- Relationship between thrombolysis in myocardial infarction blood flow before percutaneous coronary intervention and the morphological characteristics of culprit vessel plaques in patients with STEMI.Experimental and therapeutic medicine · 2023Article
- A Bayesian multivariate spatial approach for illness-death survival models.Statistical methods in medical research · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
6 authors at 3 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Purpose: In France, myocardial infarction (MI) was the second leading cause of years of life lost in 2019. Estimating the burden of MI in future years could help policymakers and other actors anticipate care and prevention needs and guide them in public health decision-making. Materials and Methods: Using data from the French hospital discharge database from 2007 to 2015 (n = 519,400), demographic data, and an illness-death model, we projected incidence, prevalence, number of prevalent cases and mean age of incident MI cases in France. The methodology took into account the age-cohort effect on MI incidence, mortality of healthy and diseased subjects, and the time since disease onset. Results: Projections highlighted an increase in MI prevalence in men between 2015 and 2035 from 2.52% (95% uncertainty interval (UI): [2.48-2.56]) in 2015 to 4.02% ([3.92-4.12]) in 2035, and from 0.85% ([0.83-0.87]) to 1.44% ([1.38-1.50]) in women. This corresponds to an increase of 365,000 cases between 2015 and 2035 (+81.1%) for men and 146,000 cases for women (+88.0%). The difference in the mean age of incident cases between men and women decreased from 9.52 in 2015 to 5.49 years in 2035. Conclusion: Our projections forecast an increase in MI prevalence between 2015 and 2035 in men and women, especially in relatively younger women. Using statistical models such as ours can help assess the impact of prevention campaigns for the main cardiovascular disease risk factors on the future MI prevalence.
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