Evidence map›Paper›PMID 35272662›Full record

ArticleBMC medical informatics and decision making2022

Reinforcement learning evaluation of treatment policies for patients with hepatitis C virus.

Brandon Oselio, Amit G Singal, Xuefei Zhang, Tony Van, Boang Liu, Ji Zhu, Akbar K Waljee

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMC medical informatics and decision making, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
6citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

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3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

6 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

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5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Brandon OselioDepartment of Biostatistics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA.
Amit G SingalDepartment of Internal Medicine, Division of Digestive and Liver Diseases, UT Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, TX, USA.
Xuefei ZhangDepartment of Statistics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA.
Tony VanHealth Services Research and Development Center of Clinical Management Research, VA Ann Arbor Healthcare System, 2215 Fuller Road, Gastroenterology 111D, Ann Arbor, MI, 48105, USA.
Boang LiuDepartment of Statistics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA.
Ji ZhuDepartment of Statistics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA.
Akbar K WaljeeHealth Services Research and Development Center of Clinical Management Research, VA Ann Arbor Healthcare System, 2215 Fuller Road, Gastroenterology 111D, Ann Arbor, MI, 48105, USA. awaljee@med.umich.edu.

Funding

Precision Risk Stratification and Screening for HCC among Patients with Cirrhosis in the United StatesU01CA230694 · NCI · UT SOUTHWESTERN MEDICAL CENTER · PI SINGAL, AMIT · 2018 to 2022
$3.5M
NCI NIH HHS U01 CA230694NIH HHS U01 CA230694
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundEvaluation of new treatment policies is often costly and challenging in complex conditions, such as hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatment, or in limited-resource settings. We sought to identify hypothetical policies for HCV treatment that could best balance the prevention of cirrhosis while preserving resources (financial or otherwise).

methodsThe cohort consisted of 3792 HCV-infected patients without a history of cirrhosis or hepatocellular carcinoma at baseline from the national Veterans Health Administration from 2015 to 2019. To estimate the efficacy of hypothetical treatment policies, we utilized historical data and reinforcement learning to allow for greater flexibility when constructing new HCV treatment strategies. We tested and compared four new treatment policies: a simple stepwise policy based on Aspartate Aminotransferase to Platelet Ratio Index (APRI), a logistic regression based on APRI, a logistic regression on multiple longitudinal and demographic indicators that were prespecified for clinical significance, and a treatment policy based on a risk model developed for HCV infection.

resultsThe risk-based hypothetical treatment policy achieved the lowest overall risk with a score of 0.016 (90% CI 0.016, 0.019) while treating the most high-risk (346.4 ± 1.4) and the fewest low-risk (361.0 ± 20.1) patients. Compared to hypothetical treatment policies that treated approximately the same number of patients (1843.7 vs. 1914.4 patients), the risk-based policy had more untreated time per patient (7968.4 vs. 7742.9 patient visits), signaling cost reduction for the healthcare system.

conclusionsOff-policy evaluation strategies are useful to evaluate hypothetical treatment policies without implementation. If a quality risk model is available, risk-based treatment strategies can reduce overall risk and prioritize patients while reducing healthcare system costs.

Indexed as

Hepatitis CHepatitis C, ChronicLiver NeoplasmsAspartate AminotransferasesHepacivirusHumansLiver CirrhosisPolicyAspartate AminotransferasesCirrhosisHepatologyMachine learningPrediction modelingReinforcement learningRisk-based treatmentTreatment policy

Identifiers

PMID35272662
PMCPMC8913329

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.