Evidence map›Paper›PMID 35255860›Full record

ArticleBMC infectious diseases2022

Past dynamics of HIV transmission among men who have sex with men in Montréal, Canada: a mathematical modeling study.

Rachael M Milwid, Yiqing Xia, Carla M Doyle, Joseph Cox, Gilles Lambert, Réjean Thomas, Sharmistha Mishra, Daniel Grace, Nathan J Lachowsky, Trevor A Hart and 2 more

Open access · goldAbstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in BMC infectious diseases, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
9citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
1.3field-weighted citation impact, top 19% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

9 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 14 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

12 authors at 7 institutions in 2 countries.

Rachael M MilwidDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Population and Global Health, McGill University, Montréal, QC, Canada.
Yiqing XiaDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Population and Global Health, McGill University, Montréal, QC, Canada.
Carla M DoyleDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Population and Global Health, McGill University, Montréal, QC, Canada.
Joseph CoxDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Population and Global Health, McGill University, Montréal, QC, Canada.
Gilles LambertDirection Régionale de Santé Publique de Montréal, Montréal, QC, Canada.
Réjean ThomasClinique Médicale L'Actuel, Montréal, QC, Canada.
Sharmistha MishraInstitute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada.
Daniel GraceSocial and Behavioural Health Sciences, Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada.
Nathan J LachowskySchool of Public Health and Social Policy, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada.
Trevor A HartDepartment of Psychology, Ryerson University, Toronto, ON, Canada.
Marie-Claude BoilyDepartment of Infectious Diseases, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Mathieu Maheu-GirouxDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Population and Global Health, McGill University, Montréal, QC, Canada. mathieu.maheu-giroux@mcgill.ca.
McGill University · CAImperial College London · GBMcGill University Health Centre · CAPublic Health Ontario · CAToronto Metropolitan University · CAUniversity of Toronto · CAUniversity of Victoria · CA

Funding

Medical Research Council MR/R015600/1
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundGay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (gbMSM) experience disproportionate risks of HIV acquisition and transmission. In 2017, Montréal became the first Canadian Fast-Track City, setting the 2030 goal of zero new HIV infections. To inform local elimination efforts, we estimate the evolving role of prevention and sexual behaviours on HIV transmission dynamics among gbMSM in Montréal between 1975 and 2019.

methodsData from local bio-behavioural surveys were analyzed to develop, parameterize, and calibrate an agent-based model of sexual HIV transmission. Partnership dynamics, HIV's natural history, and treatment and prevention strategies were considered. The model simulations were analyzed to estimate the fraction of HIV acquisitions and transmissions attributable to specific groups, with a focus on age, sexual partnering level, and gaps in the HIV care-continuum.

resultsThe model-estimated HIV incidence peaked in 1985 (2.3 per 100 person years (PY); 90% CrI: 1.4-2.9 per 100 PY) and decreased to 0.1 per 100 PY (90% CrI: 0.04-0.3 per 100 PY) in 2019. Between 2000-2017, the majority of HIV acquisitions and transmissions occurred among men aged 25-44 years, and men aged 35-44 thereafter. The unmet prevention needs of men with > 10 annual anal sex partners contributed 90-93% of transmissions and 67-73% of acquisitions annually. The primary stage of HIV played an increasing role over time, contributing to 11-22% of annual transmissions over 2000-2019. In 2019, approximately 70% of transmission events occurred from men who had discontinued, or never initiated antiretroviral therapy.

conclusionsThe evolving HIV landscape has contributed to the declining HIV incidence among gbMSM in Montréal. The shifting dynamics identified in this study highlight the need for continued population-level surveillance to identify gaps in the HIV care continuum and core groups on which to prioritize elimination efforts.

Indexed as

HIV InfectionsSexual and Gender MinoritiesAdultCanadaHomosexuality, MaleHumansMaleSexual BehaviorAgent-based modelApproximate Bayesian Computation Sequential Monte CarloGay bisexual and other men who have sex with men (gbMSM)HIV/AIDSMathematical modelingTreatment and care cascade

Identifiers

PMID35255860
PMCPMC8902714
OpenAlexW4220923234

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.