Evidence map›Paper›PMID 35255398›Full record

ArticleEpidemics2022

Rapid assessment of the risk of SARS-CoV-2 importation: case study and lessons learned.

Freya M Shearer, Camelia R Walker, Nefel Tellioglu, James M McCaw, Jodie McVernon, Andrew Black, Nicholas Geard

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Epidemics, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
6citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

6 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. The Risk from Reopening International Travel During a Disease X Pandemic: A Case Study of SARS-CoV-2.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2026
    Article
  2. Web-based models to inform health policy: A scoping review.Health research policy and systems · 2025
    Article
  3. Article
  4. The re-emergence of influenza following the COVID-19 pandemic in Victoria, Australia, 2021 to 2022.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2023
    Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Freya M ShearerMelbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Australia.
Camelia R WalkerSchool of Mathematical Sciences, The University of Adelaide, Australia.
Nefel TelliogluSchool of Computing and Information Systems, The University of Melbourne, Australia.
James M McCawMelbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Australia; Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, The Royal Melbourne Hospital and The University of Melbourne, Australia; School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne, Australia.
Jodie McVernonMelbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Australia; Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, The Royal Melbourne Hospital and The University of Melbourne, Australia; Murdoch Childrens Research Institute, The Royal Children's Hospital, Australia.
Andrew BlackSchool of Mathematical Sciences, The University of Adelaide, Australia.
Nicholas GeardSchool of Computing and Information Systems, The University of Melbourne, Australia; Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, The Royal Melbourne Hospital and The University of Melbourne, Australia. Electronic address: ngeard@unimelb.edu.au.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

During the early stages of an emerging disease outbreak, governments are required to make critical decisions on how to respond, despite limited data being available to inform these decisions. Analytical risk assessment is a valuable approach to guide decision-making on travel restrictions and border measures during the early phase of an outbreak. Here we describe a rapid risk assessment framework that was developed in February 2020 to support time-critical decisions on the risk of SARS-CoV-2 importation into Australia. We briefly describe the context in which our framework was developed, the framework itself, and provide an example of the type of decision support provided to the Australian government. We then report a critical evaluation of the modelling choices made in February 2020, assessing the impact of our assumptions on estimated rates of importation, and provide a summary of "lessons learned". The framework presented and evaluated here provides a flexible approach to rapid assessment of importation risk, of relevance to current and future pandemic scenarios.

Indexed as

COVID-19SARS-CoV-2AustraliaHumansPandemicsTravelAustraliaCOVID-19Decision supportPandemicRisk assessment

Identifiers

PMID35255398
PMCPMC8865958

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.