ArticlePloS one2022
Future prevalence of type 2 diabetes-A comparative analysis of chronic disease projection methods.
Article in PloS one, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers.
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Who cites it
20 citing papers in PubMed, 27 citations in OpenAlex.
- Protocol for a Systematic Review of Psychosocial Factors That Predict Mental Health Among Males Living with Type 2 Diabetes.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2026Article
- Incidence of arterial hypertension in Germany 2009-2018 based on prevalence data from 70 million patients from the statutory health insurance.BMC cardiovascular disorders · 2026Article
- Exploring the Evidence for Personalized Pharmacotherapy in Type 2 Diabetes-A Systematic Review.Journal of personalized medicine · 2025Review
- The global burden of inflammatory bowel disease: from 2025 to 2045.Nature reviews. Gastroenterology & hepatology · 2025Review
- Treatment and associated outcomes of type 2 diabetes mellitus patients with a cardiovascular comorbidity and comparison with guideline recommendations: a German claims data analysis.Cardiovascular diabetology · 2025Observational
- Trends in prevalence and number of cases of diagnosed type 2 diabetes in Germany: Projections until 2050.Journal of health monitoring · 2025Article
- Article
- Twenty-first century management of diabetes with shared telemedicine appointments.Journal of telemedicine and telecare · 2025Review
- Modeling the temporal prevalence peak drift of chronic diseases.BMC medical research methodology · 2025Article
- Future prevalence of type 2 diabetes in Germany: a projection until 2040 including incidence trends observed during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.Frontiers in epidemiology · 2025Article
- Article
- Lifetime prevalence of cancer in Germany between 2010 and 2019: An analysis based on aggregated data.PloS one · 2025Article
- Projecting the economic burden of type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus in Germany from 2010 until 2040.Population health metrics · 2024Article
- Projected number of people in need for long-term care in Germany until 2050.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
- Comparative analysis of four nutritional scores in predicting adverse outcomes in biopsy-confirmed diabetic kidney Disease.Frontiers in nutrition · 2024Article
- A population-based projection of psoriatic arthritis in Germany until 2050: analysis of national statutory health insurance data of 65 million German population.Rheumatology international · 2023Article
- Future number of people with diagnosed type 1 diabetes in Germany until 2040: an analysis based on claims data.BMJ open diabetes research & care · 2023Article
- Spatio-Temporal Trends in the Incidence of Type 2 Diabetes in Germany.Deutsches Arzteblatt international · 2023Article
- Exploring the role of CBT in the self-management of type 2 diabetes: A rapid review.Health SA = SA Gesondheid · 2023Review
- Illness-Death Model as a Framework for Chronic Disease Burden Projection: Application to Mental Health Epidemiology.Frontiers in epidemiology · 2022Article
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Authors and funding
4 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundAccurate projections of the future number of people with chronic diseases are necessary for effective resource allocation and health care planning in response to changes in disease burden.
aimTo introduce and compare different projection methods to estimate the number of people with diagnosed type 2 diabetes (T2D) in Germany in 2040.
methodsWe compare three methods to project the number of males with T2D in Germany in 2040. Method 1) simply combines the sex- and age-specific prevalence of T2D in 2010 with future population distributions projected by the German Federal Statistical Office (FSO). Methods 2) and 3) additionally account for the incidence of T2D and mortality rates using partial differential equations (PDEs). Method 2) models the prevalence of T2D employing a scalar PDE which incorporates incidence and mortality rates. Subsequently, the estimated prevalence is applied to the population projection of the FSO. Method 3) uses a two-dimensional system of PDEs and estimates future case numbers directly while future mortality of people with and without T2D is modelled independently from the projection of the FSO.
resultsMethod 1) projects 3.6 million male people with diagnosed T2D in Germany in 2040. Compared to 2.8 million males in 2010, this equals an increase by 29%. Methods 2) and 3) project 5.9 million (+104% compared to 2010) and 6.0 million (+116%) male T2D patients, respectively.
conclusionsThe results of the three methods differ substantially. It appears that ignoring temporal trends in incidence and mortality may result in misleading projections of the future number of people with chronic diseases. Hence, it is essential to include these rates as is done by method 2) and 3).
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