Observational studyJournal of Alzheimer's disease : JAD2022
Dementia Risk Score for a Population in Southern Europe Calculated Using Competing Risk Models.
Observational study in Journal of Alzheimer's disease : JAD, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
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The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
3 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 5 citations in OpenAlex.
- A critical review and classification of dementia risk assessment tools to inform dementia risk reduction.The journal of prevention of Alzheimer's disease · 2025Pooled it
- Multi-domain prognostic models used in middle-aged adults without known cognitive impairment for predicting subsequent dementia.The Cochrane database of systematic reviews · 2023Pooled it
- What's New in Dementia Risk Prediction Modelling? An Updated Systematic Review.Dementia and geriatric cognitive disorders extraReview
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
11 authors at 10 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundDementia prevention can be addressed if the intervention is applied early.
objectiveThe objective of this study was to develop and validate competing risk models to predict the late risk of dementia based on variables assessed in middle age in a southern European population.
methodsWe conducted a prospective observational study of the EPIC-Spain cohort that included 25,015 participants. Dementia cases were identified from electronic health records and validated by neurologists. Data were gathered on sociodemographic characteristics and cardiovascular risk factors. To stratify dementia risk, Fine and Gray competing risk prediction models were constructed for the entire sample and for over-55-year-olds. Risk scores were calculated for low (the 30% of the sample with the lowest risk), moderate (> 30% -60%), and high (> 60% -100%) risk.
resultsThe 755 cases of dementia identified represented a cumulative incidence of 3.1% throughout the study period. The AUC of the model for over-55-year-olds was much higher (80.8%) than the overall AUC (68.5%) in the first 15 years of follow-up and remained that way in the subsequent follow-up. The weight of the competing risk of death was greater than that of dementia and especially when the entire population was included.
conclusionThis study presents the first dementia risk score calculated in a southern European population in mid-life and followed up for 20 years. The score makes it feasible to achieve the early identification of individuals in a southern European population who could be targeted for the prevention of dementia based on the intensive control of risk factors.
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