Evidence map›Paper›PMID 35247320›Full record

ArticleThe Lancet. Infectious diseases2022

Measuring the effects of COVID-19-related disruption on dengue transmission in southeast Asia and Latin America: a statistical modelling study.

Yuyang Chen, Naizhe Li, José Lourenço, Lin Wang, Bernard Cazelles, Lu Dong, Bingying Li, Yang Liu, Mark Jit, Nikos I Bosse and 6 more

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in The Lancet. Infectious diseases, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 101 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
101citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

101 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Pooled it
  3. Immunogenicity, Safety, and Efficacy of a Tetravalent Dengue Vaccine in Children and Adolescents: An Analysis by Age Group.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2025
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  13. [Presence of Aedes aegypti in a high altitude area in Bolivia]Revista de la Facultad de Ciencias Medicas (Cordoba, Argentina) · 2025
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41 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

16 authors.

Yuyang ChenState Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Center for Global Change and Public Health, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.
Naizhe LiState Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Center for Global Change and Public Health, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China; MOE Key Laboratory for Biodiversity Science and Ecological Engineering, College of Life Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.
José LourençoBiosystems and Integrative Sciences Institute, University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal.
Lin WangDepartment of Genetics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK; Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, UMR2000, CNRS, Paris, France.
Bernard CazellesInstitut de Biologie de l'École Normale Supérieure UMR8197, Eco-Evolutionary Mathematics, École Normale Supérieure, Paris, France; Unité Mixte Internationnale 209, Mathematical and Computational Modeling of Complex Systems, Sorbonne Université, Paris, France.
Lu DongMOE Key Laboratory for Biodiversity Science and Ecological Engineering, College of Life Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.
Bingying LiState Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Center for Global Change and Public Health, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.
Yang LiuCentre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Mark JitCentre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Nikos I BosseCentre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Sam AbbottCentre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Raman VelayudhanDepartment of Control of Neglected Tropical Diseases, WHO, Geneva, Switzerland.
Annelies Wilder-SmithDepartment of Disease Control, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany.
Huaiyu TianState Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Center for Global Change and Public Health, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China. Electronic address: tianhuaiyu@gmail.com.
Oliver J BradyCentre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK. Electronic address: oliver.brady@lshtm.ac.uk.
CMMID COVID-19 Working Group

Funding

Medical Research Council MR/S019510/1Medical Research Council MR/V031112/1Wellcome Trust 206471/Z/17/ZWellcome Trust 208812/Z/17/ZWorld Health Organization 001
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in unprecedented disruption to society, which indirectly affects infectious disease dynamics. We aimed to assess the effects of COVID-19-related disruption on dengue, a major expanding acute public health threat, in southeast Asia and Latin America.

methodsWe assembled data on monthly dengue incidence from WHO weekly reports, climatic data from ERA5, and population variables from WorldPop for 23 countries between January, 2014 and December, 2019 and fit a Bayesian regression model to explain and predict seasonal and multi-year dengue cycles. We compared model predictions with reported dengue data January to December, 2020, and assessed if deviations from projected incidence since March, 2020 are associated with specific public health and social measures (from the Oxford Coronavirus Government Response Tracer database) or human movement behaviours (as measured by Google mobility reports).

findingsWe found a consistent, prolonged decline in dengue incidence across many dengue-endemic regions that began in March, 2020 (2·28 million cases in 2020 vs 4·08 million cases in 2019; a 44·1% decrease). We found a strong association between COVID-19-related disruption (as measured independently by public health and social measures and human movement behaviours) and reduced dengue risk, even after taking into account other drivers of dengue cycles including climatic and host immunity (relative risk 0·01-0·17, p<0·01). Measures related to the closure of schools and reduced time spent in non-residential areas had the strongest evidence of association with reduced dengue risk, but high collinearity between covariates made specific attribution challenging. Overall, we estimate that 0·72 million (95% CI 0·12-1·47) fewer dengue cases occurred in 2020 potentially attributable to COVID-19-related disruption.

interpretationIn most countries, COVID-19-related disruption led to historically low dengue incidence in 2020. Continuous monitoring of dengue incidence as COVID-19-related restrictions are relaxed will be important and could give new insights into transmission processes and intervention options.

fundingNational Key Research and Development Program of China and the Medical Research Council.

Indexed as

COVID-19DengueBayes TheoremHumansLatin AmericaPandemicsSARS-CoV-2

Identifiers

PMID35247320
PMCPMC8890758

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.