ArticleThe Science of the total environment2022
Model-based assessment of COVID-19 epidemic dynamics by wastewater analysis.
Article in The Science of the total environment, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 28 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
28 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Recent progress on wastewater-based epidemiology for COVID-19 surveillance: A systematic review of analytical procedures and epidemiological modeling.The Science of the total environment · 2023Pooled it
- Networked SIRS model with Kalman filter state estimation for epidemic monitoring in Europe.Communications medicine · 2026Article
- SARS-CoV-2 wastewater genomic surveillance: approaches, challenges, and opportunities.Genome biology · 2026Review
- Wastewater-based reproduction rates for epidemic curve reconstruction.Biostatistics (Oxford, England) · 2025Article
- Post-recovery viral shedding shapes wastewater-based epidemiological inferences.Communications medicine · 2025Article
- Development of Bayesian segmented Poisson regression model to forecast COVID-19 dynamics based on wastewater data: a case study in Nanning City, China.BMC public health · 2025Article
- State-space modelling using wastewater virus and epidemiological data to estimate reported COVID-19 cases and the potential infection numbers.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2025Article
- Epidemiological model can forecast COVID-19 outbreaks from wastewater-based surveillance in rural communities.Water research · 2025Article
- Article
- Challenges of COVID-19 Case Forecasting in the US, 2020-2021.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
- Fate-and-transport modeling of SARS-CoV-2 for rural wastewater-based epidemiology application benefit.Heliyon · 2024Article
- Integrating wastewater and randomised prevalence survey data for national COVID surveillance.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Wastewater-based reproduction numbers and projections of COVID-19 cases in three areas in Japan, November 2021 to December 2022.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2024Article
- Longitudinal fecal shedding of SARS-CoV-2, pepper mild mottle virus, and human mitochondrial DNA in COVID-19 patients.Frontiers in medicine · 2024Article
- Wastewater-based surveillance models for COVID-19: A focused review on spatio-temporal models.Heliyon · 2023Review
- Making waves: Integrating wastewater surveillance with dynamic modeling to track and predict viral outbreaks.Water research · 2023Article
- Wastewater-based modeling, reconstruction, and prediction for COVID-19 outbreaks in Hungary caused by highly immune evasive variants.Water research · 2023Article
- A spatio-temporal framework for modelling wastewater concentration during the COVID-19 pandemic.Environment international · 2023Article
- Persistence of endogenous RNA biomarkers of SARS-CoV-2 and PMMoV in raw wastewater: Impact of temperature and implications for wastewater-based epidemiology.The Science of the total environment · 2023Article
- A simple SEIR-V model to estimate COVID-19 prevalence and predict SARS-CoV-2 transmission using wastewater-based surveillance data.The Science of the total environment · 2023Article
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Authors and funding
8 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Continuous surveillance of COVID-19 diffusion remains crucial to control its diffusion and to anticipate infection waves. Detecting viral RNA load in wastewater samples has been suggested as an effective approach for epidemic monitoring and the development of an effective warning system. However, its quantitative link to the epidemic status and the stages of outbreak is still elusive. Modelling is thus crucial to address these challenges. In this study, we present a novel mechanistic model-based approach to reconstruct the complete epidemic dynamics from SARS-CoV-2 viral load in wastewater. Our approach integrates noisy wastewater data and daily case numbers into a dynamical epidemiological model. As demonstrated for various regions and sampling protocols, it quantifies the case numbers, provides epidemic indicators and accurately infers future epidemic trends. Following its quantitative analysis, we also provide recommendations for wastewater data standards and for their use as warning indicators against new infection waves. In situations of reduced testing capacity, our modelling approach can enhance the surveillance of wastewater for early epidemic prediction and robust and cost-effective real-time monitoring of local COVID-19 dynamics.
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