ArticleEClinicalMedicine2022
Impact of catch-up human papillomavirus vaccination on cervical cancer incidence in Kenya: A mathematical modeling evaluation of HPV vaccination strategies in the context of moderate HIV prevalence.
Article in EClinicalMedicine, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 19 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
19 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Inclusion of marginalized populations in HPV vaccine modeling: A systematic review.Preventive medicine · 2024Pooled it
- Effect of a pay-it-forward strategy on reducing HPV vaccine delay and increasing uptake among 15- to 18-year-old girls in China: A randomized controlled trial.PLoS medicine · 2025Trial
- HPV genotype distribution and risk factors for cervical dysplasia among HPV-positive women with or without HIV infection in Shanghai, China.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- The impact of HIV on cervical cancer elimination in KwaZulu-Natal: a comparative modeling analysis.Journal of the National Cancer Institute · 2026Article
- Accelerating HPV-related cancer elimination - a meeting report.BMC proceedings · 2025Article
- Article
- Pay-it-forward strategy reduced HPV vaccine delay and increased uptake among catch-up age girls: A randomized clinical trial.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2025Article
- Article
- Regional Disparities in the Impact of Human Papillomavirus-Induced Lesions after 10 Years of HPV Vaccination Program in Brazil.Asian Pacific journal of cancer prevention : APJCP · 2024Article
- HPVsim: An agent-based model of HPV transmission and cervical disease.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
- Concomitant human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination and screening for elimination of HPV and cervical cancer.Nature communications · 2024Article
- State of the science and future directions for research on HIV and cancer: Summary of a joint workshop sponsored by IARC and NCI.International journal of cancer · 2024Review
- State-of-the-Science of human papillomavirus vaccination in women with human immunodeficiency Virus: Summary of a scientific workshop.Preventive medicine reports · 2023Review
- Living with HIV and Getting Vaccinated: A Narrative Review.Vaccines · 2023Review
- Exploring computer-aided health decision-making on cervical cancer interventions through deliberative interviews in Ethiopia.NPJ digital medicine · 2023Article
- Confronting the human papillomavirus-HIV intersection: Cervical cytology implications for Kenyan women living with HIV.Southern African journal of HIV medicine · 2023Article
- Joint modeling HIV and HPV using a new hybrid agent-based network and compartmental simulation technique.PloS one · 2023Article
- Mathematical Models for Evaluating Effectiveness and Cost-Effectiveness of Cervical Cancer Control Policies in Populations Including Women Living With Human Immunodeficiency Virus: A Scoping Review.Value in health regional issues · 2022Article
- Human Papillomavirus Vaccination Uptake and Its Predictors Among Female Adolescents in Gulu Municipality, Northern Uganda.Adolescent health, medicine and therapeutics · 2022Article
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11 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundCervical cancer incidence is high in Kenya due to HIV and limited access to cancer prevention services. Human papillomavirus (HPV) has been shown to increase HIV acquisition; however, the potential impact of HPV vaccination on HIV is unknown. We modeled the health impact of HPV vaccination in the context of the HIV epidemiology in Kenya.
methodsUsing a validated compartmental transmission model of HIV and HPV set in Kenya, we evaluated five scenarios of nonavalent HPV vaccination: single-age-vaccination of 10-year-old girls at 90% coverage; multi-age-cohort (MAC) vaccination of 10-14-year-old girls at 90% coverage; MAC plus moderate-coverage (50%) catch-up vaccination of 15-24-year-old women; MAC plus high-coverage (80%) catch-up of 15-24-year-old women; and MAC plus catch-up of 15-44-year-old women at 80% coverage (HPV-FASTER). We compared cervical cancer incidence, HIV prevalence, and cumulative cervical cancer and HIV cases averted after 50 years to a baseline scenario without vaccination. In all scenarios, we assumed the UNAIDS 90-90-90 goal for HIV treatment is attained by 2030.
findingsIn 2021, model-estimated cervical cancer incidence is 44/100,000 and HIV prevalence among women is 6·5%. In 2070, projected cancer incidence declines to 27/100,000 and HIV prevalence reaches 0·3% without vaccination. With single-age-vaccination, cancer incidence in 2070 is reduced by 68%, averting 64,529 cumulative cancer cases. MAC vaccination reduces cancer incidence by 75%, averting 206,115 cancer cases. Moderate and high-coverage catch-up and HPV-FASTER reduce cancer incidence by 80%, 82%, and 84%, averting 254,930, 278,690, and 326,968 cancer cases, respectively. In all scenarios, HIV prevalence in 2070 is reduced by a relative 8-11%, with 15,609-34,981 HIV cases averted after 50 years.
interpretationHPV vaccination can substantially reduce cervical cancer incidence in Kenya in the next 50 years, particularly if women up to age 24 are vaccinated. HIV treatment scale-up can also alleviate cervical cancer burden. However, HPV vaccination has modest additional impact on HIV when antiretroviral therapy coverage is high.
fundingNational Institutes of Health, Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.
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