Evidence map›Paper›PMID 35240349›Full record

ArticleBone2022

Reverse engineering the FRAX algorithm: Clinical insights and systematic analysis of fracture risk.

Jules D Allbritton-King, Julia K Elrod, Philip S Rosenberg, Timothy Bhattacharyya

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Bone, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
10citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

10 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Guideline
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. An enhanced Fracture Risk Evaluation Model (FREM) using national health data on morbidity and medications.Journal of bone and mineral research : the official journal of the American Society for Bone and Mineral Research · 2025
    Article
  6. Article
  7. Review
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Jules D Allbritton-KingClinical and Investigative Orthopedics Surgery Unit, National Institute of Arthritis and Musculoskeletal and Skin Diseases, National Institutes of Health, United States of America.
Julia K ElrodDivision of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, United States of America.
Philip S RosenbergDivision of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, United States of America.
Timothy BhattacharyyaClinical and Investigative Orthopedics Surgery Unit, National Institute of Arthritis and Musculoskeletal and Skin Diseases, National Institutes of Health, United States of America. Electronic address: timothy.bhattacharyya@nih.gov.

Funding

Medical Scientist Training ProgramT32GM007753 · NIGMS · HARVARD UNIVERSITY (MEDICAL SCHOOL) · PI WALENSKY, LOREN DAVID · 1985 to 2021
$50.0M
Study of Osteoporotic FracturesR01AG005407 · NIA · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA SAN FRANCISCO · PI CUMMINGS, STEVEN RON, YAFFE, KRISTINE · 1986 to 2016
$23.2M
Study of Osteoporotic FracturesR01AG005394 · NIA · UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA TWIN CITIES · PI ENSRUD, KRISTINE · 1986 to 2015
$6.1M
STUDY OF OSTEOPOROTIC FRACTURES: VERTEBRAL FRACTURESR01AR035583 · NIAMS · KAISER FOUNDATION RESEARCH INSTITUTE · PI HILLIER, TERESA A · 1986 to 2005
$3.2M
Study of Osteoporotic Fractures (SOF)R01AG027574 · NIA · KAISER FOUNDATION RESEARCH INSTITUTE · PI HILLIER, TERESA A · 2006 to 2015
$2.6M
Study of Osteoporotic Fractures (SOF)-Pittsburgh ClinicR01AG027576 · NIA · UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH AT PITTSBURGH · PI CAULEY, JANE ANN · 2006 to 2015
$2.4M
Study of Osteoporotic FracturesR01AR035582 · NIAMS · UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH AT PITTSBURGH · PI CAULEY, JANE · 1986 to 2005
$2.4M
Study of Osteoporotic FracturesR01AR035584 · NIAMS · UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND BALTIMORE · PI HOCHBERG, MARC C. · 1986 to 2005
$2.1M
Intramural NIH HHS Z99 AR999999NIAMS NIH HHS R01 AR035582NIAMS NIH HHS R01 AR035583NIAMS NIH HHS R01 AR035584NIA NIH HHS R01 AG005394NIA NIH HHS R01 AG005407NIA NIH HHS R01 AG027574NIA NIH HHS R01 AG027576NIGMS NIH HHS T32 GM007753
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) is a computational tool developed to predict the 10-year probability of hip fracture and major osteoporotic fracture based on inputs of patient characteristics, bone mineral density (BMD), and a set of seven clinical risk factors. While the FRAX tool is widely available and clinically validated, its underlying algorithm is not public. The relative contribution and necessity of each input parameter to the final FRAX score is unknown. We systematically collected hip fracture risk scores from the online FRAX calculator for osteopenic Caucasian women across 473,088 unique inputs. This dataset was used to dissect the FRAX algorithm and construct a reverse-engineered fracture risk model to assess the relative contribution of each input variable. Within the reverse-engineered model, age and T-Score were the strongest contributors to hip fracture risk, while BMI had marginal contribution. Of the clinical risk factors, parent history of fracture and ongoing glucocorticoid treatment had the largest additive effect on risk score. A generalized linear model largely recapitulated the FRAX tool with an R

Indexed as

Hip FracturesOsteoporotic FracturesAgedAlgorithmsBone DensityFemaleHumansRisk AssessmentRisk FactorsBone mineral densityFRAXGeneralized linear modelHip fracture riskOsteoporosis

Identifiers

PMID35240349
PMCPMC9035136

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceTDM
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.