Evidence map›Paper›PMID 35236836›Full record

ArticleNature communications2022

General statistical model shows that macroevolutionary patterns and processes are consistent with Darwinian gradualism.

Mark Pagel, Ciara O'Donovan, Andrew Meade

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 24 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
24citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

24 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
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  7. Multi-response phylogenetic mixed models: concepts and application.Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society · 2025
    Review
  8. Article
  9. The diffused evolutionary dynamics of morphological novelty.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025
    Article
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Article
  13. Article
  14. Primate social organization evolved from a flexible pair-living ancestor.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024
    Article
  15. Review
  16. Article
  17. Article
  18. Article
  19. Article
  20. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors.

Mark PagelSchool of Biological Sciences, University of Reading, Reading, RG6 6UR, UK. m.pagel@reading.ac.uk.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-7287-8865
Ciara O'DonovanSchool of Biological Sciences, University of Reading, Reading, RG6 6UR, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4770-4227
Andrew MeadeSchool of Biological Sciences, University of Reading, Reading, RG6 6UR, UK.

Funding

Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council BB/S019952/1
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Macroevolution posed difficulties for Darwin and later theorists because species' phenotypes frequently change abruptly, or experience long periods of stasis, both counter to the theory of incremental change or gradualism. We introduce a statistical model that accommodates this uneven evolutionary landscape by estimating two kinds of historical change: directional changes that shift the mean phenotype along the branches of a phylogenetic tree, and evolvability changes that alter a clade's ability to explore its trait-space. In mammals, we find that both processes make substantial independent contributions to explaining macroevolution, and are rarely linked. 'Watershed' moments of increased evolvability greatly outnumber reductions in evolutionary potentials, and large or abrupt phenotypic shifts are explicable statistically as biased random walks, allowing macroevolutionary theory to engage with the language and concepts of gradualist microevolution. Our findings recast macroevolutionary phenomena, illustrating the necessity of accounting for a variety of evolutionary processes simultaneously.

Indexed as

Biological EvolutionModels, StatisticalAnimalsMammalsPhenotypePhylogeny

Identifiers

PMID35236836
PMCPMC8891346

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.