Total polyp number may be more important than size and histology of polyps for prediction of metachronous high-risk colorectal neoplasms.

backgroundTo evaluate whether the risk of metachronous high-risk colorectal neoplasm (HR-CRN) differs according to the indication for surveillance colonoscopy.

methodsPatients who underwent polypectomy or endoscopic resection of colorectal neoplasms were enrolled and classified into three groups according to the indication for surveillance colonoscopy: advanced colorectal neoplasm (ACRN: adenoma ≥ 10 mm, adenoma with high-degree dysplasia and/or villous component), advanced serrated polyps (ASP: hyperplastic polyp or sessile serrated lesion ≥ 10 mm, traditional serrated polyp), and high-risk polyps (HRP: 3 or more adenomas or serrated polyps). The primary outcome was the development of metachronous HR-CRN, defined as ACRN, ASP, or HRP at the first follow-up colonoscopy.

resultsIn total, 367 patients were enrolled (ACRN group: N = 264; ASP group: N = 33; HRP group: N = 70). Among the 160 patients who underwent follow-up colonoscopy, 28 (18%) had HR-CRN. In univariable analysis, indication for surveillance colonoscopy was not found to be associated with the development of metachronous HR-CRN. Instead, the total polyp number at index colonoscopy showed a positive association with the risk of metachronous HR-CRN in trend analysis (p = 0.001). In multivariable analysis, the presence of 5 or more polyps at index colonoscopy was found to be associated with the risk of metachronous HR-CRN (OR, 2.575, p = 0.049) after adjusting for risk factors, such as obesity, diabetes, and smoking.

conclusionsThe risk of metachronous HR-CRN did not differ according to the main indications for surveillance colonoscopy. The presence of 5 or more polyps at index colonoscopy was the only risk factor for metachronous HR-CRN.