ArticleMathematics and computers in simulation2022
Maximal reproduction number estimation and identification of transmission rate from the first inflection point of new infectious cases waves: COVID-19 outbreak example.
Article in Mathematics and computers in simulation, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers.
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13 citing papers in PubMed.
- Subject Modeling-Based Analysis of the Evolution and Intervention Strategies of Major Emerging Infectious Disease Events.Risk management and healthcare policy · 2025Article
- Parameter estimation for stable distributions and their mixture.Journal of applied statistics · 2025Article
- Exploring optimal control strategies in a nonlinear fractional bi-susceptible model for Covid-19 dynamics using Atangana-Baleanu derivative.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Interregional mobility in different age groups is associated with COVID-19 transmission in the Taipei metropolitan area, Taiwan.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Forecasting the Endemic/Epidemic Transition in COVID-19 in Some Countries: Influence of the Vaccination.Diseases (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- Stationary status of discrete and continuous age-structured population models.Mathematical biosciences · 2023Article
- Genetic determination of regional connectivity in modelling the spread of COVID-19 outbreak for more efficient mitigation strategies.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Analyzing the effect of restrictions on the COVID-19 outbreak for some US states.Theoretical ecology · 2023Article
- Global stability and analysing the sensitivity of parameters of a multiple-susceptible population model of SARS-CoV-2 emphasising vaccination drive.Mathematics and computers in simulation · 2023Article
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- Analyzing the GHSI puzzle of whether highly developed countries fared worse in COVID-19.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Quantitatively evaluate the impact of domestic aviation control measures on the spread of COVID-19 in China.Scientific reports · 2022Article
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3 authors.
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Abstract
The dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic varies across countries and it is important for researchers to study different kind of phenomena observed at different stages of the waves during the epidemic period. Our interest in this paper is not to model what happened during the endemic state but during the epidemic state. We proposed a continuous formulation of a unique maximum reproduction number estimate with an assumption that the epidemic curve is in form of the Gaussian curve and then compare the model with the discrete form and the observed basic reproduction number during the contagiousness period considered. Furthermore, we estimated the transmission rate from identification of the first inflection point of a wave of the curve of daily new infectious cases using the Bernoulli S-I (Susceptible-Infected) equation. We applied this new method to the real data from Cameroon COVID-19 outbreak both at national and regional levels. High correlation was observed between the socio-economic parameters and epidemiology parameters at regional level in Cameroon. Also, the method was applied to the second wave COVID-19 outbreak for the world data which is a period the phenomena we are considering were observed. Lastly, it was observed that the models presented results correspond with the epidemic dynamics in Cameroon and World data. We recommend that it is important to study what happened during the growth inflection point as some countries data did not climax.
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