ArticleValue in health : the journal of the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research2022
Performance of the UK Prospective Diabetes Study Outcomes Model 2 in a Contemporary UK Type 2 Diabetes Trial Cohort.
Article in Value in health : the journal of the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 18 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
18 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Developing a Comprehensive Framework for Cost-Effectiveness Evaluation in Metastatic Castration-Sensitive Prostate Cancer: Insights from a Systematic Review.PharmacoEconomics · 2025Pooled it
- Bariatric Surgery for Adults With Class I Obesity and Difficult-to-Manage Type 2 Diabetes: A Health Technology Assessment.Ontario health technology assessment series · 2023Pooled it
- Impact of changes in conventional risk factors induced by once-weekly GLP-1 receptor agonist exenatide on cardiovascular outcomes: an EXSCEL post hoc analysis.Cardiovascular diabetology · 2025Trial
- Trial
- Indices of obesity, malnutrition and inflammation are strong predictors of mortality in adults with type 2 diabetes: the FIELD study.Diabetologia · 2026Article
- Prognostic Models for Predicting Coronary Heart Disease Risk in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.Diagnostics (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Review
- Economic Evaluation of NHS England's Type 2 Diabetes Path to Remission Pilot Scheme: Evidence From Real-World Data and Patient Simulation Modelling.PharmacoEconomics - open · 2026Article
- Cost-effectiveness of sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors and glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists for patients with high cardiovascular risk and type 2 diabetes in Canada.CMAJ : Canadian Medical Association journal = journal de l'Association medicale canadienne · 2026Article
- Cost-effectiveness of continuous glucose monitoring in Chinese adults with uncontrolled type 2 diabetes: A modelling study stratified by baseline HbADiabetes, obesity & metabolism · 2026Article
- Estimating the risk of cardiovascular outcomes and all-cause mortality in individuals with type 2 diabetes: Validation of the UKPDS outcomes model using TECOS and EXSCEL data.Diabetes, obesity & metabolism · 2026Article
- Ability of the DHAM Score to Predict 5-Year All-Cause Mortality in Patients With Diabetes and Comorbid Hypertension: Validation and Risk Stratification in Two Prospective Cohorts.Journal of diabetes research · 2026Article
- Development and validation of a type 2 diabetes model to estimate the cost-effectiveness of diabetes interventions across the care continuum.International journal of technology assessment in health care · 2025Article
- The Long-Term Cost-Effectiveness of Oral Semaglutide Versus Lower-Cost Liraglutide in the UK.Diabetes therapy : research, treatment and education of diabetes and related disorders · 2025Article
- Prognostic models for cardiovascular and kidney outcomes in people with type 2 diabetes: living systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies.BMJ medicine · 2025Article
- Using QALYs as an Outcome for Assessing Global Prediction Accuracy in Diabetes Simulation Models.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2025Article
- Adaptation of risk prediction equations for cardiovascular outcomes among patients with type 2 diabetes in real-world settings: a cross-institutional study using common data model approach.Cardiovascular diabetology · 2024Article
- The WISDOM self-management intervention: A cost-effectiveness analysis to support the transformation of type 2 diabetes care in England.Diabetic medicine : a journal of the British Diabetic Association · 2022Article
- Insulin degludec/liraglutide versus its monotherapy on T2D patients: A lifetime cost-utility analysis in China.Frontiers in pharmacology · 2022Article
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Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
Abstract
objectivesThe UK Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) Outcomes Model (UKPDS-OM) developed using 30-year (1977-2007) data from the UKPDS is widely used for health outcomes' projections and economic evaluations of therapies for patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D). Nevertheless, its reliability for contemporary UK T2D populations is unclear. We assessed the performance of version 2 of the model (UKPDS-OM2) using data from A Study of Cardiovascular Events in Diabetes (ASCEND), which followed participants with diabetes in the UK between 2005 and 2017.
methodsThe UKPDS-OM2 was used to predict the occurrence of myocardial infarction (MI), other ischemic heart disease, stroke, cardiovascular (CV) death, and other death among the 14 569 participants with T2D in ASCEND, all without previous CV disease at study entry. Calibration (comparison of predicted and observed year-on-year cumulative incidence over 10 years) and discrimination (c-statistics) of the model were assessed for each endpoint. The percentage error in event rates at year 7 (mean duration of follow up) was used to quantify model bias.
resultsThe UKPDS-OM2 substantially overpredicted MI, stroke, CV death, and other death over the 10-year follow-up period (by 149%, 42%, 269%, and 52%, respectively, at year 7). Discrimination of the model for MI and other ischemic heart disease (c-statistics 0.58 and 0.60, respectively) was poorer than that for other outcomes (c-statistics ranging from 0.66 to 0.72).
conclusionsThe UKPDS-OM2 substantially overpredicted risks of key CV outcomes and death in people with T2D in ASCEND. Appropriate adjustments or a new model may be required for assessments of long-term effects of treatments in contemporary T2D cohorts.
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