ArticleAnnals of internal medicine2022
Estimation of Breast Cancer Overdiagnosis in a U.S. Breast Screening Cohort.
Article in Annals of internal medicine, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 48 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
48 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 91 citations in OpenAlex.
- Pooled it
- Pooled it
- The influence of postscreening follow-up time and participant characteristics on estimates of overdiagnosis from lung cancer screening trials.International journal of cancer · 2022Pooled it
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- Over-detection and over-surveillance in breast screening: current status and the potential for artificial intelligence optimisation.Insights into imaging · 2025Review
- Overdiagnosis, competing morbidity and tumour biology in older women with breast cancer: building a case for active monitoring.Nature reviews. Clinical oncology · 2025Article
- Breast MRI to Screen Women With Extremely Dense Breasts.Journal of magnetic resonance imaging : JMRI · 2025Review
- Incidental Atypia in Patients Undergoing Chest Masculinization Surgery: An Observational Series.Transgender health · 2025Article
- Article
- Food insecurity among adult females with a history of breast cancer compared to adult females without cancer in the USA.Journal of cancer survivorship : research and practice · 2025Article
- Article
- Mammographic screening: hero or villain.Revista da Associacao Medica Brasileira (1992) · 2025Article
- BI-RADS application for breast cancer screening in primary healthcare settings: assessing protocol adherence and diagnostic validity.Frontiers in oncology · 2025Article
- Comparative analysis of convolutional neural networks and transformer architectures for breast cancer histopathological image classification.Frontiers in medicine · 2025Article
- Quantifying Overdiagnosis for Multicancer Detection Tests: A Novel Method.Statistics in medicine · 2024Article
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Authors and funding
10 authors at 9 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundMammography screening can lead to overdiagnosis-that is, screen-detected breast cancer that would not have caused symptoms or signs in the remaining lifetime. There is no consensus about the frequency of breast cancer overdiagnosis.
objectiveTo estimate the rate of breast cancer overdiagnosis in contemporary mammography practice accounting for the detection of nonprogressive cancer.
designBayesian inference of the natural history of breast cancer using individual screening and diagnosis records, allowing for nonprogressive preclinical cancer. Combination of fitted natural history model with life-table data to predict the rate of overdiagnosis among screen-detected cancer under biennial screening.
settingBreast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) facilities.
participantsWomen aged 50 to 74 years at first mammography screen between 2000 and 2018. MEASUREMENTS: Screening mammograms and screen-detected or interval breast cancer.
resultsThe cohort included 35 986 women, 82 677 mammograms, and 718 breast cancer diagnoses. Among all preclinical cancer cases, 4.5% (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 0.1% to 14.8%) were estimated to be nonprogressive. In a program of biennial screening from age 50 to 74 years, 15.4% (UI, 9.4% to 26.5%) of screen-detected cancer cases were estimated to be overdiagnosed, with 6.1% (UI, 0.2% to 20.1%) due to detecting indolent preclinical cancer and 9.3% (UI, 5.5% to 13.5%) due to detecting progressive preclinical cancer in women who would have died of an unrelated cause before clinical diagnosis. LIMITATIONS: Exclusion of women with first mammography screen outside BCSC.
conclusionOn the basis of an authoritative U.S. population data set, the analysis projected that among biennially screened women aged 50 to 74 years, about 1 in 7 cases of screen-detected cancer is overdiagnosed. This information clarifies the risk for breast cancer overdiagnosis in contemporary screening practice and should facilitate shared and informed decision making about mammography screening. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: National Cancer Institute.
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