ArticleEpidemiology and infection2022
Spatial epidemiological characteristics and exponential smoothing model application of tuberculosis in Qinghai Plateau, China.
Article in Epidemiology and infection, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.
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8 citing papers in PubMed.
- A novel time-series modeling framework for predicting tuberculosis incidence in Sichuan, China.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Changing epidemiological patterns of tuberculosis in China from 1990 to 2023: trends and future projections of drug-resistant and HIV-associated tuberculosis.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Hand, foot and mouth disease incidence in mainland China: temporal trends and projections to 2030.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Analyzing factors affecting tuberculosis incidence in various mainland Chinese economic regions and predicting trends: a comprehensive regression study.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Socio-demographic disparities in global trends of lip and oral cavity neoplasms from 1990 to 2021.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Epidemiological trends and incidence prediction of periodontal disease based on the Global Burden of Disease study 2021.Frontiers in dental medicine · 2025Article
- Research of Combined ES-BP Model in Predicting Syphilis Incidence 1982-2020 in Mainland China.Iranian journal of public health · 2023Article
- Age-period-cohort analysis of pulmonary tuberculosis reported incidence, China, 2006-2020.Infectious diseases of poverty · 2022Article
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10 authors.
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Abstract
The epidemic of tuberculosis has posed a serious burden in Qinghai province, it is necessary to clarify the epidemiological characteristics and spatial-temporal distribution of TB for future prevention and control measures. We used descriptive epidemiological methods and spatial statistical analysis including spatial correlation and spatial-temporal analysis in this study. Furthermore, we applied an exponential smoothing model for TB epidemiological trend forecasting. Of 43 859 TB cases, the sex ratio was 1.27:1 (M:F), and the average annual TB registered incidence was 70.00/100 000 of 2009-2019. More cases were reported in March and April, and the worst TB stricken regions were the prefectures of Golog and Yushu. High TB registered incidences were seen in males, farmers and herdsmen, Tibetans, or elderly people. 7132 cases were intractable, which were recurrent, drug resistant, or co-infected with other infections. Three likely cases clusters with significant high risk were found by spatial-temporal scan on data of 2009-2019. The exponential smoothing winters' additive model was selected as the best-fitting model to forecast monthly TB cases in the future. This research indicated that TB in Qinghai is still a serious threaten to the local residents' health. Multi-departmental collaboration and funds special for TB treatments and control are still needed, and the exponential smoothing model is promising which could be applied for forecasting of TB epidemic trend in this high-altitude province.
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